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Old 12-30-2020, 09:28 AM   #991
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...I really don't see that the extreme and non-extreme measures have shown us much difference(s) ....
I'd beg to differ on this point. All things equal, I'd expect CA to have massively higher rates than more rural states because the population density and the fact people travel more (both locally and distance)

The number of different people I come in contact in my home town is a fraction of what I'd see back in Cupertino. Every winter is a lockdown here!
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Old 12-30-2020, 10:00 AM   #992
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Matt's posts below this are quite on point in that thinking.
I think you are thinking too much into it. It's just a statistic amongst many others. Trailing indicator of the impact of the virus on a location. Something to trend and that's about it.

FWIW: in my internal reporting, I don't even share deaths because I don't want to derail the conversation. And then in my analysis, I tend to do 2 week comparisons of deaths because of the lumpiness in reporting and then average out to a day. Helps with the above trend as mentioned above. I tried 7 day SMA and it's just ugly.
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Old 01-02-2021, 09:51 PM   #993
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I think you are thinking too much into it. It's just a statistic amongst many others. Trailing indicator of the impact of the virus on a location. Something to trend and that's about it.

FWIW: in my internal reporting, I don't even share deaths because I don't want to derail the conversation. And then in my analysis, I tend to do 2 week comparisons of deaths because of the lumpiness in reporting and then average out to a day. Helps with the above trend as mentioned above. I tried 7 day SMA and it's just ugly.
I think you're right on thinking too much into it Matt. Good health to all those reading this and participating. I really don't like seeing the deaths and ICU'd patients.
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Old 06-26-2021, 06:43 PM   #994
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Old 07-20-2021, 07:27 AM   #995
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Local news has been comparing Wyoming vs South Dakota here in the Black Hills.
We get weather from the Sheridan direction, and it is fairly close.
WY is listed as tenth to the worst for infection rate, SD is first for lowest rate.
And tying with Florida for the best tourist market recovery.

I imagine this will change in a couple of weeks





Psssst, , there are sport bikes in SD
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Old 07-23-2021, 08:30 AM   #996
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It happened last nite on local Fox news,

The bombshell, "Superspreader" first I've heard this year speculating about 81st Sturgis Rally.

Also had a talking head reporting of the last years 'rona positive tests on SD locals after the 80th. Something about only 200 for last years event.

That seems low.
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Old 07-23-2021, 09:09 AM   #997
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It happened last nite on local Fox news,

The bombshell, "Superspreader" first I've heard this year speculating about 81st Sturgis Rally.

Also had a talking head reporting of the last years 'rona positive tests on SD locals after the 80th. Something about only 200 for last years event.

That seems low.
1) I don't think we were doing sufficient contact tracing to even know. Since so many come from other states, and possibly bring the infection home with them, the true number is likely far higher than we know.

2) I seem to recall that SD was in the bottom few states as far as per capita infection rate prior to Sturgis, as well as ND. A few weeks after the rally, both states were among the top few states as far as per capita infection rate. Seems likely that was a direct result of Sturgis.
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Old 07-23-2021, 09:28 AM   #998
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North Dakota is still #1 for cases per million, South Dakota is #3.

I suspect that Fox is pre-empting other warnings, trying to put in their take first and under-reporting the actual impact. Their followers will eat it up and ignore any other stories about it that don't fall in line with what they've reported.
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Old 07-23-2021, 10:00 AM   #999
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North Dakota is still #1 for cases per million, South Dakota is #3.

I suspect that Fox is pre-empting other warnings, trying to put in their take first and under-reporting the actual impact. Their followers will eat it up and ignore any other stories about it that don't fall in line with what they've reported.
Wow, you're right. I hadn't looked in a long time. And those are two of the least populous states. They don't have population density. They should be among the lowest. They were until Sturgis last year. Apparently, that had lasting effects, I'm sure combined with other issues. Wouldn't be surprised if both states had a lot of anti-mask anti-vax types. Just looked. North Dakota is right around 40% vaccinated, and South Dakota is around 46% vaccinated.
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Old 07-23-2021, 10:13 AM   #1000
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South Dakota's governor is very anti-mask but I think the people of the state opted for vaccine after they got hit so hard last year.
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Old 07-23-2021, 10:56 AM   #1001
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As far as I'm concerned CA governor and US pres is anti mask... should follow Los Angeles lead.

This whole return to normal is like a hormonal teenager shooting his wad at the mere sight of pussy.
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Old 07-23-2021, 12:47 PM   #1002
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As far as I'm concerned CA governor and US pres is anti mask... should follow Los Angeles lead.

This whole return to normal is like a hormonal teenager shooting his wad at the mere sight of pussy.
Two words: Recall Election

Also, this whole new surge is 100% driven by the anti-vax crowd, if they had gotten vaccinated like and when they should have, this would be a big nothing burger.
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Old 07-23-2021, 01:05 PM   #1003
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Two words: Recall Election

Also, this whole new surge is 100% driven by the anti-vax crowd, if they had gotten vaccinated like and when they should have, this would be a big nothing burger.
Governor Larry Elder anyone? I hear he has no experience other than a right wing radio talk show, which makes him the leading candidate.
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Old 07-23-2021, 10:26 PM   #1004
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As far as I'm concerned CA governor and US pres is anti mask... should follow Los Angeles lead.

This whole return to normal is like a hormonal teenager shooting his wad at the mere sight of pussy.
As far as most people are concerned, they're likely anti-mask. I for sure am anti-mask. I don't want to wear a fucking mask all the time I'm out in public. This shit reminds me a lot of the punishments we used to get in the Army where the leadership knew the easiest and most effective way to get the message through to the lowest rungs on the ladder was to make life suck for everyone collectively so that the, er...collective...would begin policing their own internally so as to reach the desired outcome that the leadership wanted in the first place but either found was too difficult or time-consuming to achieve or knew that it would be so unwanted by the vast majority that they didn't want to deal with the hassle of making the effort to just force everyone to do it in the first place. Either way, the goal was still achieved. In short, "get smart or get big". It worked.

On the other hand though, I'm not ant-science nor am I willing to bury my head in the sand to save political face. I understand that wearing a mask actually works. Well, wearing a mask correctly actually works, anyway (ie: not "dick-nosing"). It doesn't work as well as getting vaccinated does, but it certainly helps. However, if all these dumbshits who do not have a legitimate medial reason to not vaccinate would just fucking get vaccinated, chances are we'd all likely stand a far lower chance of needing to wear a mask except in some very specific situations. But, since the aforementioned people still and likely always will exist, this will likely turn into a lifetime issue for at least a generation.
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Old 07-24-2021, 06:20 AM   #1005
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I think we would still have a problem if everyone who could get vaccinated did so and wore a mask because there is still a large enough population segment that cannot, and the vaccinated still get infected and shed virus. And then there's what's happening in the rest of the world. I keep thinking, this global issue started from just one infection... Who knows what's in the oven waiting to be released.
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