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Old 09-09-2020, 12:13 PM   #481
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Originally Posted by OaklandF4i View Post
If you are going to bother to quote the article, why don't you actually share what the first article says.

Ie, how many cases there are, hospitalization, recoveries, rates etc etc you know..... real data by scientists and health professionals. Share what those professionals have said and attribute the cases too.

Then try to intelligently link the non peer reviewed white paper to the actual facts on the ground as reported by health professionals.

To me, the facts on the ground would seem to vindicate Noem's claim of fiction. Or at the very least give her some plausible reason to make such a claim.

I'm keeping an open mind, are you?

A little critical thought could go a long way.
While it's clear that the SD Gov has a specific agenda in mind, it seems you've quite missed previous posts that I've made, and that others also have.

I've been suspicious of that paper when it was first linked here. In fact this quoting of pre-prints as fact is a bit of an issue that should be discussed or at least noted.

I found a wonderful recent pre-print paper a few weeks ago that suggests that the virus will just melt away in India:

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These results conform to the sharply declining fatality rate countrywide (>7-fold during April 11 – June 28, 2020). Altogether, while we propose the potential of S-R complex stability to track disease severity, we urge an immediate need to explore if SARS-CoV-2 is approaching mutational meltdown in India.
But clearly that's not the case is it?

India sets global record with single-day rise in coronavirus cases
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...KBN25Q06A?il=0
https://apnews.com/69cfa5356010fa7b414093bb775f8f52

I think everyone here is old enough to make their own judgements on these reports without also needing extraneous opinionated commentary for a viewframe.
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Old 09-09-2020, 12:16 PM   #482
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Originally Posted by bosco12 View Post
I think everyone here is old enough to make their own judgements on these reports without also needing extraneous opinionated commentary for a viewframe.

So how young are you?
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Old 09-09-2020, 12:38 PM   #483
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Originally Posted by OaklandF4i View Post
I guess we can choose to believe what we want to believe.

What did you think of the tables showing both the absolute and relative numbers of attendees by county? Page 40 of 63 in the paper they published.

Kinda debunks your highway theory and leads back to the point I made earlier about where attendees come from and how they get there. The county maps clearly indicate large figures of attendees from Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin..... not just states to the south and east.

Using your table of information (very useful and good by the way), I extended the timeline all the way back to spring to include those states and a few others.

Colorado, a major source of attendees has not shown a major spike, nor has Wyoming or Montana. In the case of Montana and North Dakota, both states were seeing increases in daily cases long before the rally. North Dakota more extreme, and much before the Sturgis event.

Is it possible that what ever factors taking place significantly BEFORE the Sturgis event driving up North Dakota's figures could also be attributed to South Dakota? Seems pretty plausible to a reasonable person in my humble opinion.

Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin also no significant spike, or at least not significant like North and South Dakota. Even Iowa was trending upwards, but had a significant spike corresponding to the Dakotas.

As for the paper, I think DataDan did a pretty good job of summing it up. In my opinion, its far from conclusive and more of paper in line with "I think" this is possible vs "I conclusively found" type of study by the authors.

As for Governor Noem and her explanation for why the paper was fiction, I think some of the top Health officials in South Dakota already gave a pretty good reason its fiction.

You can disagree with Gov Noem all you want, but she and the state are managing Covid. It may not be managed to your tastes or in a manner you choose, but the hospitals are not overflowing and people are not dying in hallways. Given a state with the small population that South Dakota has, the 14 million or so tourists a year the state gets, and keeping open for business.... I'd say they are managing it to their expectations.

Just my opinion....
I'll start off by saying I made full disclosure when I put out the theory about highway system, that it was a plausible possibility but could be fitting function to form.

At least there was some meat to my logic unlike the governor's.

As to North Dakota already being high before the Sturgis rally, there were 11 states with higher running average New Cases on 8/2/2020 (you can confirm on my map of data, which per your imput uses 7 day averages). Even on 8/19, there were at least 13 states with higher new cases. It wasn't until 8/30 before they started to spike up, about 2 weeks after the end of Sturgis that would follow very closely the delay in exposure to cases we've seen for months now in different places.

With Sturgis, I voiced the 'potential' of it being a super spreader, that wasn't a prediction but an observation of the possibility of that happening, given all the factors.

I have no agenda here, not sure how you've come to that conclusions, I'm just trying to understand how everything is happening and playing out like many others.

There is plenty of ambiguity here with any numbers that come out of this, due to the wide range of areas these people came from and returned to, so everybody is probably going to have a different perspective and opinion on what actually resulted. Human nature.
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Old 09-09-2020, 12:43 PM   #484
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Study connecting 250,000 COVID-19 cases to Sturgis Rally 'isn't science, it's fiction'
https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/lo...433c50029.html


REMOVED FOR POLITICAL CONTENT
FYI Bosco. That is your third infraction.
Next one buys a week of free time.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:04 PM   #485
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FYI Bosco. That is your third infraction.
Next one buys a week of free time.
I don't see anything political in what I did - it was a link to yesterday's news article about the use of funding sources.

If I had used the AP's associated photo then perhaps it would meet your criteria - not mine.

Because of that I'll just stop posting. I'm sure I won't get it right.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:22 PM   #486
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Originally Posted by Climber View Post
I'll start off by saying I made full disclosure when I put out the theory about highway system, that it was a plausible possibility but could be fitting function to form.

At least there was some meat to my logic unlike the governor's.

As to North Dakota already being high before the Sturgis rally, there were 11 states with higher running average New Cases on 8/2/2020 (you can confirm on my map of data, which per your imput uses 7 day averages). Even on 8/19, there were at least 13 states with higher new cases. It wasn't until 8/30 before they started to spike up, about 2 weeks after the end of Sturgis that would follow very closely the delay in exposure to cases we've seen for months now in different places.

With Sturgis, I voiced the 'potential' of it being a super spreader, that wasn't a prediction but an observation of the possibility of that happening, given all the factors.

I have no agenda here, not sure how you've come to that conclusions, I'm just trying to understand how everything is happening and playing out like many others.

There is plenty of ambiguity here with any numbers that come out of this, due to the wide range of areas these people came from and returned to, so everybody is probably going to have a different perspective and opinion on what actually resulted. Human nature.
I'll leave the governor and politics out, shouldn't have gone there. The comments on a particular Governor led me to believe a slant. Agree to disagree there.

And yes, you did mention possibly backfilling on the highway theory. It's hard not come off as confrontational in this format.... not my intention. Enjoy your posts

As for North Dakota, there may have been states with higher rates before Sturgis... but North Dakota was on a very steep trajectory upwards since July. Its looks like a continuation of the trend, the trajectory didnt change dramatically since July. What's behind it?

Thats what I was getting at. Hard to pin it on Sturgis as it looks to me like it started long before the event. Taking it a step further, could whatever was driving those stats for ND also come into play in South Dakota a few weeks later, and coinciding with Sturgis.

Not saying Sturgis isnt a factor. But to what extent? Kinda disappointing how many major news sources have picked up on this paper regarding Sturgis and the 250K figure. It really isnt helping all of us figure it out.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:22 PM   #487
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Bosco.. this thread has been dancing a political line for a while.

The link was reported. It takes three mods to agree that it is political.
I get to do the deed usually. If you look at the PTrap thread in the Sink you will see items that have been political.

The photo for sure, since it was Trump and that made it political immediately.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:30 PM   #488
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Originally Posted by OaklandF4i View Post
I'll leave the governor and politics out, shouldn't have gone there. The comments on a particular Governor led me to believe a slant. Agree to disagree there.

And yes, you did mention possibly backfilling on the highway theory. It's hard not come off as confrontational in this format.... not my intention. Enjoy your posts

As for North Dakota, there may have been states with higher rates before Sturgis... but North Dakota was on a very steep trajectory upwards since July. Its looks like a continuation of the trend, the trajectory didnt change dramatically since July. What's behind it?

South Dakota is a bit less ambiguous, time wise, they were trending up, but had a big jump at the end of August.

Thats what I was getting at. Hard to pin it on Sturgis as it looks to me like it started long before the event. Taking it a step further, could whatever was driving those stats for ND also come into play in South Dakota a few weeks later, and coinciding with Sturgis.

Not saying Sturgis isnt a factor. But to what extent? Kinda disappointing how many major news sources have picked up on this paper regarding Sturgis and the 250K figure. It really isnt helping all of us figure it out.
You are correct about ND being on the up slope, it looke like it started up right around 7/1. The trajectory id increase a bit after 8/17, but that could as easily have been from the other attractions in the area, as you earlier pointed out.

I would have liked to have seen the trajectories of the people returning home, IIRC they showed those from Daytonna beach when the cell phone tracking data first came out, would have added some additional data points to the grist mill.

I think that there is probably a political angle to papers and media sites adopting this paper, just as there was with earlier releases that appealed to the other side. It's unfortunate that this virus has been so political right from the start, I think that as a country we'd be in far better shape if there had been a single, cohesive message instead of the dueling stances and recommendations. This country has suffered as a result.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:43 PM   #489
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Bosco.. this thread has been dancing a political line for a while.

The link was reported. It takes three mods to agree that it is political.
I get to do the deed usually. If you look at the PTrap thread in the Sink you will see items that have been political.

The photo for sure, since it was Trump and that made it political immediately.
Man, I don't see a photo of Trump in that link and the text hardly seems political to me as it's a story in a local newspaper the Rapid City Journal.
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Old 09-09-2020, 02:48 PM   #490
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Man, I don't see a photo of Trump in that link and the text hardly seems political to me as it's a story in a local newspaper the Rapid City Journal.
Right? 2020 is a wacky year. And, I fall into the mask wearing frequent hand washing sky is falling camp. Just not seeing it.
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Old 09-09-2020, 03:02 PM   #491
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Man, I don't see a photo of Trump in that link and the text hardly seems political to me as it's a story in a local newspaper the Rapid City Journal.
There were originally two links in that post. The second one, which does have political content, was removed.
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Old 09-09-2020, 03:35 PM   #492
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Coronavirus: Almost 20% of cases in past month stem from controversial motorcycle rally, research claims

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A motorcycle rally held in South Dakota in August and attended by hundreds of thousands of Americans from across the country is linked to more than 260,000 Covid-19 cases recorded in the US since 2 August, a new study suggests, with researchers describing the event as a "worst-case scenario" for spreading the disease.

Between 7 and 16 August, around 450,000 people from across the states flocked to Sturgis for the annual 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which featured several concerts and was held despite cases soaring across the country. Last week, a 60-year-old man with underlying health conditions was the first known person thought to have died with coronavirus having attended the event.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...s-b420887.html
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Old 09-09-2020, 03:36 PM   #493
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Man, I don't see a photo of Trump in that link and the text hardly seems political to me as it's a story in a local newspaper the Rapid City Journal.
Too slow...!




As Dan said we only took away one link.
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Old 09-09-2020, 03:39 PM   #494
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It begins:

Coronavirus: Almost 20% of cases in past month stem from controversial motorcycle rally, research claims



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...s-b420887.html
good post
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Old 09-09-2020, 03:40 PM   #495
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Essentially the same made up numbers game as the other article.

Not verified... but makes a good headline.
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