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Old 09-24-2020, 12:59 PM   #211
Tally Whacker
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But, you don't get it with 10 or 20 percent of the population having been infected or inoculated. It requires around 70% or better, and we're nowhere near that, anywhere in the world, that I know about.

We probably mostly are in NYC. If we reverse the numbers from the mortality rate and number of deaths there at the time the true rate of infection must have been well above 60% at the peak.
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:22 PM   #212
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We probably mostly are in NYC. If we reverse the numbers from the mortality rate and number of deaths there at the time the true rate of infection must have been well above 60% at the peak.
If you use today's current mortality rate, that would be true, but remember that when New York got hit very hard, we knew next to nothing about the virus and what worked with it.

Also, their hospitals were over-whelmed so people who would have survived today were dying off.

It was a very, very steep learning curve the first couple months.
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Old 09-24-2020, 02:08 PM   #213
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You're better than that, Dan.

Please put your partisan hat aside and approach this subjectively.

Of course we believe in the concept of herd immunity.

But, you don't get it with 10 or 20 percent of the population having been infected or inoculated. It requires around 70% or better, and we're nowhere near that, anywhere in the world, that I know about.
Previously infected, inoculated, or with a pre-existing immunity.

For some reason, some people just don't catch it. Take kids for example. In California, there have been 9000 cases per 1,000,000 population under age 18. For 18-49 it is THREE TIMES that--27,000 cases per million. That means there's something, in some people, that protects them. We don't know what it is, so we don't know how widespread it is in the population.

What we DO know is that the new-case rate has slowed in some places in a way consistent with herd immunity, and some kind of pre-existing immunity in a large portion of the population would help explain that. New York City is the most obvious example, but also nearby states that were hit hard, early. After suffering a devastatingly high number of cases early in the pandemic, the new-case rate in those states dropped. They have not exhibited a BLM surge, mid-summer surge, or Labor Day surge, while other states in the neighborhood did (Pennsylvania, for example). The spread of the virus simply slowed dramatically.

That result is inconsistent with the theory that the spread of the virus can be slowed only with lockdown/masks/whatever. Restrictions are similar in many states, but the only ones where the virus seems to have stopped is those that have reached some sort of case threshold higher than the rest. A similar argument can be made comparing Sweden, where the rate of spread is low, to nearby countries now experiencing a late-summer surge.
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Old 09-24-2020, 02:17 PM   #214
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If you use today's current mortality rate, that would be true, but remember that when New York got hit very hard, we knew next to nothing about the virus and what worked with it.

Also, their hospitals were over-whelmed so people who would have survived today were dying off.

It was a very, very steep learning curve the first couple months.

The city has had nearly 24,000 deaths from covid. If we assume 0.4% mortality (based of Italy's IFR numbers) that gives us 6,000,000 cases.
Given that there are only 8,500,000 people in NYC, we can extrapolate a 70% infection rate.

Now, infections are still happening in NYC, so clearly total herd immunity hasn't yet happened but the rate is much lower than almost anywhere else in the US despite the extremely high population density. This must mean that R is lower in the city than in the US at large.
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Old 09-24-2020, 02:21 PM   #215
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Previously infected, inoculated, or with a pre-existing immunity.

For some reason, some people just don't catch it. Take kids for example. In California, there have been 9000 cases per 1,000,000 population under age 18. For 18-49 it is THREE TIMES that--27,000 cases per million. That means there's something, in some people, that protects them. We don't know what it is, so we don't know how widespread it is in the population.

What we DO know is that the new-case rate has slowed in some places in a way consistent with herd immunity, and some kind of pre-existing immunity in a large portion of the population would help explain that. New York City is the most obvious example, but also nearby states that were hit hard, early. After suffering a devastatingly high number of cases early in the pandemic, the new-case rate in those states dropped. They have not exhibited a BLM surge, mid-summer surge, or Labor Day surge, while other states in the neighborhood did (Pennsylvania, for example). The spread of the virus simply slowed dramatically.

That result is inconsistent with the theory that the spread of the virus can be slowed only with lockdown/masks/whatever. Restrictions are similar in many states, but the only ones where the virus seems to have stopped is those that have reached some sort of case threshold higher than the rest. A similar argument can be made comparing Sweden, where the rate of spread is low, to nearby countries now experiencing a late-summer surge.
But, to support your theory, you're leaving out a very important factor...namely people taking steps to avoid catching the virus.

Now, if they had gone back to business as usual, then I would agree that there is something else at work.

However, these states are also of the political population that is far, far more accepting of wearing masks and taking other precautions, and that above and beyond the fact that most people in those states know at least one person who has died from covid-19.

We'll know in another couple months, so better to agree that the other person's arguments have some merit and that time will show which were more true.
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Covid19 Visualization graph and table. **NOTE** Using John Hopkins data data, shows State, Country & County data.

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Old 09-24-2020, 02:22 PM   #216
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It's on the way. I'm offering the San Joaquin Valley as a rough indicator of that segment, but I really don't know if that's accurate. Maybe Snaggy could add his $0.02. It includes counties from Kern to San Joaquin, not including the foothills.




US data from The COVID Tracking Project.
California data from the Department of Public Health.
.

Months ago I posted I thought that food production workers in the Central Valley would be at risk, another Smithfield Ham waiting to happen. I mentioned Foster Farms as being conscientous about safety and infections.

Foster Farms had at least 400 cases and 8 deaths at their Livingston chicken works. The state called it the worst occupational health disaster in years. That's a significant part of the Valley surge. Little Livingstone had the highest infection rate in the county. FF was ordered to shut, defied the order, then made a deal to stay open.

This week, dozens of cars disgorged dozens of workers at dawn on a 10 acre field near my house. They're digging sweet potatoes. Those are placed in wooden boxes and sent to a sorting facility. Ladies who know what they're doing will step up to the conveyor and sort. They can make decent money because they're fast. They're also working close together.

These are ALL immigrants, tireless workers, and I wish them well.

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Old 09-24-2020, 03:58 PM   #217
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To be clear: Neither of you believes in "herd immunity"?

It is, in fact, a recognized concept in epidemiology that depends on how contagious a disease is and how many in the population are immune.
I absolutely believe in herd immunity.

What I don't believe are your numbers to achieve it, or that it's been achieved in the case of NYC, and to put sprinkles on that, I don't trust that you are not swayed by an agenda or politics.
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Old 09-24-2020, 05:08 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by DataDan View Post
For some reason, some people just don't catch it. Take kids for example. In California, there have been 9000 cases per 1,000,000 population under age 18. For 18-49 it is THREE TIMES that--27,000 cases per million. That means there's something, in some people, that protects them. We don't know what it is, so we don't know how widespread it is in the population.
hard stop, kids are just as susceptible to getting covid as any other group. They are just more likely to be asymptomatic then any other group. We aren't testing kids at the same rate as we are testing adults.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/88574

In three outbreaks in Utah, 54% of cases linked to childcare facilities occurred in children, and transmission likely occurred from children with confirmed COVID-19 to 25% of their "non-facility contacts," such as parents and siblings, with one parent hospitalized, reported Cuc Tran, PhD, of the CDC, and colleagues.

Moreover, transmission to adults was confirmed in two of three children with asymptomatic infection, the authors wrote in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Ten adults who worked at the childcare facility also contracted the infection, with contact tracing showing they were facility-associated cases, Tran and colleagues noted.

Of the 12 children who acquired the virus in childcare facilities, transmission was documented to at least 12 of 46 non-facility contacts, according to this report.

and this

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/87849

Among 597 Georgia residents, including campers, staff members, and trainees, the attack rate was 44%, reported Christine M. Szablewski, DVM, of the Georgia Department of Public Health, and colleagues.

The attack rate was highest among staff members (56%). Younger children ages 6-10 had a rate of 51%, those ages 11-17 had a rate of 44%, and those ages 18-21 had a rate of 33%, the authors wrote in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
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Last edited by Yakoo752; 09-24-2020 at 05:11 PM..
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Old 09-25-2020, 10:18 AM   #219
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