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Old 08-13-2020, 08:06 AM   #6316
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Interesting pattern to that chart. It’s like every five days or so hospitals pull the plug on patients to clear out for the next batch.
The US figures typically have sharp drops in deaths on weekends, which I think is due to statistical record keeping pauses. If you look a long term chart there's definitely a pattern in both deaths and cases.
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:05 PM   #6317
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Well, the pulse oximeter arrived today. I got a measurement of 97%, so I'm good there. Tired today, but not as bad as yesterday. Fever was 100.5°F when I last checked. Still have a mild cough. No shortness of breath. I should be nearing the tail end of this thing. I'm hoping this on again off again fever breaks for good tomorrow so I'll be on schedule for parole on Saturday.
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:11 PM   #6318
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:38 PM   #6319
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Great to hear!
I hope you don't have that month of lower energy that hit's a bunch of people with it, from reports.
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Old 08-13-2020, 04:33 PM   #6320
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Youyang Gu explains his model


youtu.be/f88bYflJYEo
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Old 08-13-2020, 05:34 PM   #6321
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Youyang Gu explains his model
I don't give a single stinking shit about a fucking model without a proven track record. You know: "Here's what my model forecast for the 2009 swine flu pandemic as it was emerging. Here is what then happened."

We have reached an irreversible level of fear in large part due to unwarranted belief in models. People with a religious reverence for "science" were first duped by the Imperial College model, which predicted millions of US deaths. Then, after the paper was retracted and sanity was attempting to get a foothold, came predictions based on colossally fucked up data that ignored the demographics of victims. Deaths of 10,000 elderly nursing home patients in New York and New Jersey were extrapolated to the young and healthy, again scaring the bejeezus out of True Believers.

A model produces a prediction based on a theory. If its predictions have been shown to be accurate, then the underlying theory may be true and future predictions of the model may be of value. Until it has been tested, it is merely speculation and should not be the basis of public policy.
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Old 08-13-2020, 10:19 PM   #6322
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I don't give a single stinking shit about a fucking model without a proven track record. You know: "Here's what my model forecast for the 2009 swine flu pandemic as it was emerging. Here is what then happened."

We have reached an irreversible level of fear in large part due to unwarranted belief in models. People with a religious reverence for "science" were first duped by the Imperial College model, which predicted millions of US deaths. Then, after the paper was retracted and sanity was attempting to get a foothold, came predictions based on colossally fucked up data that ignored the demographics of victims. Deaths of 10,000 elderly nursing home patients in New York and New Jersey were extrapolated to the young and healthy, again scaring the bejeezus out of True Believers.

A model produces a prediction based on a theory. If its predictions have been shown to be accurate, then the underlying theory may be true and future predictions of the model may be of value. Until it has been tested, it is merely speculation and should not be the basis of public policy.
I am assuming you didn't watch it because he says much of the same regarding public policy.

He's also not claiming his model is the model to use. He's a data scientist that threw some simple machine learning at a problem. He makes some broad assumptions, I don't necessarily agree with. But he has released his model and you can change the assumptions. (just clone his git repository and run it in python)
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Last edited by Yakoo752; 08-14-2020 at 06:46 AM..
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Old 08-14-2020, 06:07 AM   #6323
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Dave-keep emerging from the yickiness.
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Old 08-14-2020, 07:05 AM   #6324
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Dave-keep emerging from the yickiness.
He's right though

2 shit models have sent the world into chaos

not omitting the actual viral contributions, but testing your model against previous pandemics like Dan suggests, would be the better way to go about it.
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Old 08-14-2020, 09:07 AM   #6325
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When you think it can not be more Batshit Crazy:

Sheriff Billy Woods of the Marion County Florida Sheriff's Office. ""So, as for us, my order will stand as is when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office -- masks will not be worn." "And the order doesn't just extend to those on the payroll -- anyone walking into a sheriff's office, either the main office or a district one, will be asked to remove their mask, Woods wrote. If they don't, they will be asked to leave."
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Old 08-14-2020, 09:11 AM   #6326
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Marin County’s rate of positive coronavirus tests climbed from a low of 1.7% in May to an alarming 10% near the end of July, and then county health officials stopped reporting it.

The positivity rate is a key metric that the state uses to determine whether transmission of the virus is rising. But its accuracy has been thrown into question after ongoing technical issues were found in California’s coronavirus tracking database, said Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County’s public health officer.

As a result, Marin’s health officials are no longer reporting the county’s positivity rate or its case rate relative to population size, which are indicators that the state uses to determine whether counties can open schools and certain businesses.

“We don’t have enough confidence in the data coming from the state to put our numbers out yet,” said Dr. Matt Willis, the county’s public health officer. “Rather than put out something that’s misleading, we’ve chosen to freeze the data until it’s stabilized.”

Unlike some California counties, Marin gets coronavirus test results directly from the labs that process them, rather than relying on the state database to collect the information, according to Willis. The county reported 85 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, which came after a record-setting 112 new cases on Wednesday.

But Willis said many of those newly reported cases were likely the results of tests administered weeks ago, due to a statewide backlog of tests.

But he noted that it’s possible some tests and cases aren’t being reported directly to county officials — especially tests that come back negative. If those are underreported, the county’s percent-positive rate could be artificially inflated, he said.

“We’re learning that we’ve been missing more negative results from the state than we thought,” Willis said.
Marin health officials stop reporting virus-tracking data as state grapples with glitches
https://www.marinij.com/2020/08/13/m...with-glitches/
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Old 08-14-2020, 09:53 AM   #6327
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What an utter moron. Darwinism will preavail. The sooner he contracts it and gets removed from the gene pool, the better off we all will be.

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When you think it can not be more Batshit Crazy:

Sheriff Billy Woods of the Marion County Florida Sheriff's Office. ""So, as for us, my order will stand as is when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office -- masks will not be worn." "And the order doesn't just extend to those on the payroll -- anyone walking into a sheriff's office, either the main office or a district one, will be asked to remove their mask, Woods wrote. If they don't, they will be asked to leave."
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Old 08-14-2020, 10:21 AM   #6328
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What an utter moron. Darwinism will preavail. The sooner he contracts it and gets removed from the gene pool, the better off we all will be.
Unfortunately, the taxpayers will be paying for the lawsuits from the people who have caught the virus due to his utterly ignorant stance.

He should be recalled by the citizens before he is the cause of massive lawsuits which he will absolutely lose.
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Old 08-14-2020, 10:25 AM   #6329
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Recall or let Darwinism do its thing.
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Old 08-14-2020, 11:27 AM   #6330
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but then there will be more dead people.
Is this a case where ignorance is actually deadly?
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