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Old 05-21-2021, 03:32 PM   #31
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Vaccination and new case rate by state

Sorted by new case rate descending. States in red are those mentioned by Geoff ^. Alabama's rate is due to a big upward adjustment made 5/13-5/15. Without that adjustment, its May average would be 6 new cases per day per 100K pop. Delaware was affected by a smaller adjustment; otherwise its May average would be 16.

state% at least 1 dose7 day new cases per 100K pop
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alabama35%24
Delaware51%21
Colorado51%17
Michigan47%16
Maine60%16
Wyoming36%15
West Virginia39%15
Minnesota52%14
Florida47%13
Oregon52%12
Washington53%12
Indiana40%12
Illinois52%12
Pennsylvania56%11
Kentucky44%11
South Carolina39%11
North Dakota41%11
Rhode Island58%10
Alaska44%9
Louisiana35%9
North Carolina42%9
Idaho36%9
Utah43%9
Nevada43%9
New Mexico55%9
New York53%9
New Hampshire62%8
Massachusetts63%8
Montana44%8
Mississippi33%8
Wisconsin49%8
Arizona44%8
Ohio44%8
Vermont66%7
Tennessee38%7
Hawaii63%7
Arkansas38%7
Missouri41%7
Texas42%7
Georgia38%7
Iowa47%6
Connecticut60%6
Kansas45%6
Maryland55%6
Virginia52%5
District of Columbia55%5
New Jersey57%5
South Dakota47%4
Nebraska46%4
California54%4
Oklahoma40%3
   
US48%9

Today's case count from JHU, vaccination % from NY Times
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Old 05-21-2021, 03:42 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlm View Post
I also found it interesting that WY has one of the lowest death/million rates. I doubt it is an accurate number and wonder if it is due to how they count or the fact anyone getting really sick is probably medivac'd to Denver or SLC
It's not that low: 123 deaths per 100K population, same as North Carolina, very close to Idaho, Nebraska, and Colorado.

Wyoming case-fatality rate is 1.2%, similar to Idaho and Colorado.

The lowest case-fatality rate in the US is 0.53% for Alaska, followed closely by Utah at 0.56%. Highest are Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey, from 2.4% to 2.6%.
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Old 05-21-2021, 04:37 PM   #33
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Per Johns Hopkins (they're looking at this from a global perspective):

Mortality Analyses

How does mortality differ across countries?
One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:

Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
Other factors, many of which remain unknown.
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Old 05-21-2021, 04:46 PM   #34
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Interesting the NE has some good % vaccinated.

California looking good. Thanks Dan.

The opening will be interesting.

Sitting outside at a bar now all alone. 20 people inside not all that spread out. Went in to get a pop and then back out. Now the bar tender knows I am here and came out. Plus I have the remote so watching car racing.

I am staying outside for a while. Keeping my guard up.

Planning on going to an AFM race this Sunday.
Miss seeing life. Glad to see a return flowing.
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Old 05-21-2021, 05:30 PM   #35
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States to keep an eye on.
How is this different than having community color biases when thinking of crime, for example?
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Old 05-21-2021, 05:37 PM   #36
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How is this different than having community color biases when thinking of crime, for example?
Let's not do this
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Old 05-21-2021, 05:55 PM   #37
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Let's not do this
I agree, from the beginning. No predefined targets.
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Old 05-21-2021, 06:23 PM   #38
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Old 05-21-2021, 11:07 PM   #39
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Quote:
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How is this different than having community color biases when thinking of crime, for example?
That's a discussion for the sink or the polisink. Let's keep this forum only about covid.

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Let's not do this
Agreed.
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Old 05-22-2021, 06:32 AM   #40
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Angels baseball reported that they're moving to full capacity on June 17. I must say I face that with trepidation, but I guess we have to start somewhere.

I want things to open up as much as the next guy, but that doesn't mean I'm not concerned about the unknown because of it.
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Old 05-22-2021, 07:44 AM   #41
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I sat on a call with Stanford the other day. They discussed mask wearing on campus and in the hospital.

Based on the patients they're seeing, they believe the vaccine is not as effective as reported. They believe it could be as low as 85%.

I will continue to wear my "ineffective" mask when I am out and about.
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Old 05-22-2021, 08:24 AM   #42
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I agree, from the beginning. No predefined targets.
I'm not sure at all what you are talking about.

While the number of deaths do indeed seem to be dropping a lot as vaccinations rise, there were still over 600 deaths on 5/20/21 here in the US from Covid so it makes sense that over time those deaths will be in areas where vaccination rates are lowest.

That list was from CNN.

In this County we are at 75 percent at least one dose which is a very good thing in my view though I'm not ready to go to any inside situations in restaurants/bars/theaters etc. and like Dennis am perfectly comfortable/happy just hanging outside at Crooked Goat for a brew even though i have to put on a mask to go inside despite being fully vaccinated for well over a month.
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Old 05-22-2021, 11:13 AM   #43
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I'm not sure at all what you are talking about.

While the number of deaths do indeed seem to be dropping a lot as vaccinations rise, there were still over 600 deaths on 5/20/21 here in the US from Covid so it makes sense that over time those deaths will be in areas where vaccination rates are lowest.

That list was from CNN.

In this County we are at 75 percent at least one dose which is a very good thing in my view though I'm not ready to go to any inside situations in restaurants/bars/theaters etc. and like Dennis am perfectly comfortable/happy just hanging outside at Crooked Goat for a brew even though i have to put on a mask to go inside despite being fully vaccinated for well over a month.

One of the states listed has the lowest population densities in the nation. Is the idea of listing these states as the next "watch/hot zone" normalized with past infection data either; or is it just convenient, for reasons...

CA is 24th on the beckershospitalreview site, and rates vary on the order of ~30% vs 40%. Doesn't seem like a big difference if one bothers to consider other factors. I tend to look at a bit more of the picture.

Uncomfortable topics ahead - better to just go with the popular opinion.
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Old 05-23-2021, 08:59 AM   #44
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One of the states listed has the lowest population densities in the nation. Is the idea of listing these states as the next "watch/hot zone" normalized with past infection data either; or is it just convenient, for reasons...

CA is 24th on the beckershospitalreview site, and rates vary on the order of ~30% vs 40%. Doesn't seem like a big difference if one bothers to consider other factors. I tend to look at a bit more of the picture.

Uncomfortable topics ahead - better to just go with the popular opinion.
I think it is logical to look at the effects of low vaccine rates in States as the thought is that areas with low rates will continue the evolution of the virus.

I view it as science.

Clearly Countries with low vaccine rates are struggling more than the US.

Israel is the only Country above 60 percent who have received at least one vaccine.

Mongolia, Hungary, Chile, Canada, Bahrain and UK are above 50 percent the US is in the high 40s.

Germany, Italy, France in the 30s.

India and Brazil in the 10s.

The World as a whole is almost at 10.

Japan where the Olympics will be held soon is around 5 percent which is very very odd.

The World has an awfully long way to go.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
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