Corona Virus are you ready?

[Yakoo752]

Yep

You’re going to say hi at Thanksgiving, it’s so nice to see you, and you’re either going to be visiting Grandma by Facetime in the ICU or planning a small funeral for her for Christmas...

[Climber]

South Dakota registered 105 deaths per million over the last 2 days (both days combined), that's the worst 2 day death rate I've seen.

For the nation, we're seeing exactly what the scientists feared for this fall and there is no dynamic to prevent a very, very bad Christmas.

When was the last national pandemic press conference?

[Yakoo752]

1:850 residents dead from Covid related illnesses.

[Yakoo752]

• New cases, both worldwide and in the United States have now declined on a 7-day moving average basis. Some of this decline is due to reporting delays in the U.S. around the Thanksgiving holiday. Nonetheless, the week-over-week trends in new cases had already been moving downward
  
  
• Test volume also has declined due to the Thanksgiving holiday; the test-positive rate, however, remained stable despite this decline, as has the ratio of tests-to newly detected cases
  
  
• Covid-19 inpatients continue to grow in number increasing on a same-day, prior-week basis on all except a single day since September 23. Further, the rate of inpatient days-to-new cases has moved up in the past week, although some/much of this is likely due to slowed new case reporting around the holiday
  
  
• Nevada continues to be of greatest concern for its Covid-19 census - Covid-19 patients now occupy 65% of all inpatient beds in that state; in Connecticut, its 59%; and in New Mexico, its 52%. Overall for the United States, Covid-19 patients now occupy 30% of all inpatient beds
  
  
• The % of Covid-19 inpatients requiring ICU care has been lower throughout November than at any other time during the pandemic. The % of Covid-19 patient requiring ventilator care, however, has increased over the past two weeks
  
  
• The 7-day average deaths with coronavirus has declined over the past few days. This decline, however, is likely attributed to the Thanksgiving holiday-reporting delays at the state level

[ThumperX]

Yakoo, I both look forward to and dread your daily briefings.
Thank you for taking the time and sharing the information. I wish half the US population would subscribe to this thread and actually open their eyes to the reality of what we are facing with this thing.

[Yakoo752]

Thanks G$

Stanford and UCSF announced this morning they are expanding their surge capacity. Not asking Drs to work doubles yet but preparing them in case.

[Yakoo752]

How do we compare going into and out of Thanksgiving, relative to earlier holidays?

• The test-positive rate just prior to Thanksgiving was higher than it was prior to both the 4th of July and Labor Day. It had been declining prior to Thanksgiving, however, as it had prior to Labor Day (and continued to decline post-holiday). This rate was increasing prior to the 4th of July and continued to increase post-holiday
• New infections per million were significantly higher leading into Thanksgiving than leading into both Labor Day and the 4th of July. However, these detected cases seem to be, on average, less severe than during earlier holidays:

• The rate of hospitalizations for new Covid-19 cases was 30-40% lower leading into Thanksgiving than it was leading into Labor Day and Thanksgiving
• The rate that hospitalized Covid-19 patients were in the ICU was 13-23% lower than it was the previous two holidays; the rate that hospitalized Covid-19 patients were on ventilators was 12-18% lower prior to Thanksgiving than these two prior holidays
• Leading into Thanksgiving, test volume was 2x what it was leading into Labor Day and another 33% greater than it was leading into the 4th of July

• Prior to the 4th of July, new case growth had shown clear indication of easing, while prior to Labor Day, growth in new cases was increasing. These patterns continued after the holiday (there was a pause of a few days following Labor Day). Prior to Thanksgiving, new case growth had shown an even more pronounced and longer pattern of easing than it had prior to the 4th of July
• New case growth, on a same-day, prior week basis, showed signs of slowing during the second week of November and continued to slow right up to Thanksgiving eve.

• Since Thanksgiving, new cases were flat on Friday compared to the previous Friday (when it might have expected to increase, due to delayed Thanksgiving case reporting). On Saturday, Sunday and Monday, new cases were lower each day than the comparable day one week earlier

• We remain concerned about the burden that Covid-19 is placing on healthcare resources:
  

• Covid-19 inpatient census continues to set new highs each day
• These patients now occupy 30.6% of all inpatient beds in the U.S. In Nevada and Connecticut, Covid-19 patients occupy 60+% of inpatients beds - in both cases, 12-13% more than one week ago
• The hospitalization rate for new cases - although low compared to earlier in the pandemic - has now increased over the past eleven days
• The % of hospitalized patients on ventilators - also low compared to earlier in the pandemic - has increased significantly over the past fifteen days

• This increase has been most significant in Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and New Jersey

• The mild flu season (thus far) may ease some of this burden on healthcare resources. In typical years, flu cases occupy a high percentage of inpatient beds throughout the winter

• Overall, trends in new cases in the United States and worldwide are showing improvement:

• Worldwide, the week-over-week change in new cases has been declining since late-October. In the U.S., this rate has been declining for two-and-one-half weeks (preceding the impact of delayed reporting around the Thanksgiving holiday)
• Several European countries that had experienced high infection rates early in November, including Belgium, Czechia, France and Switzerland, have experienced significant declines in this rate over the past two weeks

• Deaths with the coronavirus in the U.S have been and will continue to be of great concern:

• The 7-day average deaths had been spiking from the beginning of October until Thanksgiving. This rate eased for several days post-Thanksgiving but, more than likely due to reporting delays. It increased again yesterday
• This rate should be expected to continue increasing for at least the next few weeks, until some weeks after new cases are in consistent decline

As I understand it, CA is slated to get 250k vaccine doses in the coming days. They will be provided to LTAC and ER staff based on age and underlying conditions requirements. They are both 2 dose vaccines, so only 125,000 people will receive. The second dose will be preserved for the original patient until shipment of the next batch is received.

Apparently, CA will not be doing additional testing on the vaccine as originally indicated to leadership. I think this current increase in cases has destroyed the opportunity.

[Climber]

I think it will take a week from Thanksgiving before we start seeing the impact, and that will continue for at least a month.

In other news...

Coronavirus could have been spreading in US as early as mid-December 2019, study suggests

The novel coronavirus may have infected people in the United States as early as Dec. 13, 2019, according to a study published Monday in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

The study, which was conducted by scientists at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, analyzed blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from Dec. 13, 2019 through Jan. 17, 2020.

The 7,389 samples, collected from nine states, were tested for SARS-CoV-2 reactive antibodies. SARS-CoV-2 is the scientific name for the coronavirus that causes Covid-19.

Of the samples tested, at least 106 were found to have antibodies for SARS-CoV-2, including ones collected from California, Oregon and Washington from Dec. 13 through Dec. 16, 2019.

[WoodsChick]

Originally Posted by ThumperX

Yakoo, I both look forward to and dread your daily briefings.
Thank you for taking the time and sharing the information. I wish half the US population would subscribe to this thread and actually open their eyes to the reality of what we are facing with this thing.

What G said! I read your updates to my husband and sisters all the time. They find it very valuable, as do I. Huge thanks to you for helping us all make sense of the crazy times we're living in

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

Thanks G$

Stanford and UCSF announced this morning they are expanding their surge capacity. Not asking Drs to work doubles yet but preparing them in case.

My sister and I are scheduled for surgery at UCSF on Dec 9. I will be there for 2-4 days and my sister will be there for 4-6. I'm pretty worried about it but am putting up a front of confidence for my sister's sake as she has enough to worry about. I would assume I'm right to be concerned?

[GAJ]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

As I understand it, CA is slated to get 250k vaccine doses in the coming days. They will be provided to LTAC and ER staff based on age and underlying conditions requirements. They are both 2 dose vaccines, so only 125,000 people will receive. The second dose will be preserved for the original patient until shipment of the next batch is received.

Apparently, CA will not be doing additional testing on the vaccine as originally indicated to leadership. I think this current increase in cases has destroyed the opportunity.

Great news for first responders.

Mind you, a quick google says there are 300k nurses alone in California but a start is a start and I'm glad to see California no longer talking about a "safety" delay.

[Joshman]

Originally Posted by Climber

In other news...

Coronavirus could have been spreading in US as early as mid-December 2019, study suggests

Yeah, I'm not surprised. My team was in Taiwan in January (ish) and one came back really really sick. Tested negative for the flu, but had flu-like symptoms. Once Covid was more widely recognized, we suspected that he had actually contracted Covid in Taiwan. Note: Taiwan travel was shut down the week after they came back to the US if I remember correctly

[Yakoo752]

Originally Posted by WoodsChick

My sister and I are scheduled for surgery at UCSF on Dec 9. I will be there for 2-4 days and my sister will be there for 4-6. I'm pretty worried about it but am putting up a front of confidence for my sister's sake as she has enough to worry about. I would assume I'm right to be concerned?

Concerned, yes. I would not be overly worried though. With pre-procedure testing for the patient and strictly limiting how many people can be in theatre (I haven't been allowed to monitor, in person, a surgical procedure since this started) along with specific covid patient entry points and restrictions... I think "we've" got it figured out to be as safe as possible.

While no surgery has occurred, my immediate family has gone through a few sedations. The level of care to avoid infection was impressive.

Originally Posted by GAJ

Great news for first responders.

Mind you, a quick google says there are 300k nurses alone in California but a start is a start and I'm glad to see California no longer talking about a "safety" delay.

When you start looking at MAs, CNAs, LVNs, RNs, PAs, APCs, Physicians. You're probably just at ~1M people in CA.

This isn't janitors or other staff that are also needed to make certain the hospital can function efficiently.

With 40M people in CA, assuming you need at least 60% vaccinated before you can go 100% return to new normal, I ballpark at least a year to reach that. BUT we may find with current infections and thus antibodies, we need far fewer people to get vaccinated to slow this down. So maybe 8-10 months? I really don't know.

[WoodsChick]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

Concerned, yes. I would not be overly worried though. With pre-procedure testing for the patient and strictly limiting how many people can be in theatre (I haven't been allowed to monitor, in person, a surgical procedure since this started) along with specific covid patient entry points and restrictions... I think "we've" got it figured out to be as safe as possible.

Thank you. That's what I've kind of been trying to tell myself. Protocols seem to be pretty strict. Only 1 visitor per day, and they can only go to/from the cafeteria. If they leave the premises they cannot come back until the next day. We both get tested for Covid 2 days before surgery date, too. Fingers crossed...

[Yakoo752]

[Mr Pepsi]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

"Not for distribution"