BARF - Bay Area Riders Forum

Go Back   BARF - Bay Area Riders Forum > Moto > Covid - 19, What We Know


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-19-2020, 01:17 PM   #6616
Yakoo752
USN
 
Yakoo752's Avatar
 
AMA # 3164290
Contributor ++++++++++ 2%

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Cupertino
Motorcycles: M900
Name: Mateusz
Thanks for all the information Snaggy.

Is it safe to say the positive test volumes are no longer appropriate to use to determine local infections?

Or safe for now but gradual decline in accuracy due to the issues in reporting?
__________________
IMPERIUM NEPTUNI REGIS-Member of the Barf Chapter of the Ancient Order of Trusty Shellbacks
Yoshida Kogyo Kabushikigaisha
Team Triple Threat
Cygnus 12.02.10
Yakoo752 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2020, 06:55 PM   #6617
Snaggy
Veteran
 
Snaggy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: The Big Valley
Motorcycles: GSXR's
Name:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yakoo752 View Post
Thanks for all the information Snaggy.

Is it safe to say the positive test volumes are no longer appropriate to use to determine local infections?

Or safe for now but gradual decline in accuracy due to the issues in reporting?
I think point of care tests are the future, and there may not be mechanism to make sure they’re being reported, not so far. Anytime there’s a form that takes 5 minutes to fill out and fax at a docs office, there’s gonna be fails. The paperwork could be simplified, or the EHR or insurance company could help capture the data. I don’t think that many POC tests are being done at the moment, but Abbot reckons to change that with $5 BiNax. If the associated app were widely adopted by patients, maybe government could pull it off the phones. But that info has always been collected not only for the sake of collecting public health data but as a mechanism to trace subjects and enforce quarantines and treatment compliance. People may not like that part.

Maybe a form gets generated at registration including patient info, the test operator checks pos or neg. info goes to health dept, the chart, and patient gets a digital or paper “passport” to work, travel and socialize.

Abbot could probably sell 10 billion BiNax tests @ $5 each. They have the EUA and are ramping up.

Apparently sewage treatment plants have been fertile ground for discovery too. Viral RNA can be measured and can predict the number of cases in a community a few days later.


https://www.abbott.com/BinaxNOW-Test-NAVICA-App.html
Snaggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2020, 07:46 PM   #6618
budman
General Menace
 
budman's Avatar
 
AMA Life Member #203453
Highway Aviator
Founding Member
Top Percent Poster
Community Contributor + BB
Moto Junkie

Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Palo Alto, Ca.
Motorcycles: Keep me rocking life
Name: Budman
Man I do my best to keep up with you guys.

So much goes swoosh.
budman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2020, 08:01 PM   #6619
Yakoo752
USN
 
Yakoo752's Avatar
 
AMA # 3164290
Contributor ++++++++++ 2%

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Cupertino
Motorcycles: M900
Name: Mateusz
Yeah. I’ve posted a few sewage threads in here. I think it’s the direction we should go.

Thanks for the info again
__________________
IMPERIUM NEPTUNI REGIS-Member of the Barf Chapter of the Ancient Order of Trusty Shellbacks
Yoshida Kogyo Kabushikigaisha
Team Triple Threat
Cygnus 12.02.10
Yakoo752 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 07:37 AM   #6620
Yakoo752
USN
 
Yakoo752's Avatar
 
AMA # 3164290
Contributor ++++++++++ 2%

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Cupertino
Motorcycles: M900
Name: Mateusz
  • Eric Topol, MD posted a helpful summary of the protocols for the three clinical trials underway in the United States - Astra-Zeneca, Moderna and Pfizer. Key parameters of these protocols:
  • Each expect to enroll 30,000 participants
  • Pfizer and Moderna plan to administer the vaccine to 15,000 participants, with 15,000 receiving a placebo; Astra-Zeneca plans to administer 20,000 vaccines and 10,000 placebos
  • Pfizer and Moderna each set the efficacy target - the risk reduction provided by the vaccine - at 60%; AstraZeneca set this at 50%, which is consistent with the WHO standard. Each company set the 95% confidence limit - the minimum acceptable risk reduction - at 30%; this is consistent with the FDA standard for vaccine approval
  • Each company has identified at least one interim checkpoint during the trial; these checkpoints provide for the possibility of early termination of the trial, in the event of especially-positive results. Pfizer has established 4 interim checkpoints; Pfizer, 2 and Astra-Zeneca, 1
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publishes weekly updates of COVID-19 hospitalizations, via its COVID-NET website. This includes a breakdown of hospitalization rates by age group. As of September 12 (latest-published data):
  • Persons under 18 years of age have 1/10th the hospitalizations per capita as the overall population
  • Persons aged 65-74 have a 2x rate of hospitalizations per capita
  • Persons 75-84 have a 3.2x rate
  • Persons 85 and older have a 5x rate
  • Testing in the United States showed improvement over the past week
  • The 7-day average test volume has increased now on five consecutive days; on a week-over-week basis, testing as of yesterday was up 24%
  • The test-positive rate declined yesterday, for the 4th consecutive day; On a 7-day average basis, the rate has now declined on six consecutive days
  • New cases and the infection rate has increased for the past week or so:
  • New daily cases, which had declined for seven weeks, began increasing six days ago; On a week-over-week basis, new cases were up 11.5% yesterday versus one week ago
  • New cases on the weekend were higher than any of the past four weekends
  • On a 7-day average basis, the new daily infections per capita rate bottomed-out on September 12 and has risen each day since then; yesterday's rate was back up to the rate last experienced on September 6
  • Wisconsin and Utah experienced the steepest increase in this rate, relative to two weeks ago, followed by North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming and Oklahoma; Hawaii experienced the steepest decline in this rate, followed by Louisiana and Mississippi
  • Congrats again to the team from the state government of Vermont; this state experienced only 7 new daily cases per 1 million over the past 7 days. We are honored to have several of the key state officials among our regular readership
  • Despite the upturn in new cases, pressure on the healthcare system from COVID-19 continued to ease:
  • Inpatient COVID-19 census has declined on five consecutive days and 50 of the past 59
  • ICU COVID-19 census has declined on five consecutive days and 48 of the past 60
  • As a % of all ER visits, visits for COVID-19 like illnesses continued its now 3+ month-long decline
  • Deaths with the coronavirus continued to decline:
  • On a 7-day average basis, reported daily deaths have declined on six consecutive days
  • There were fewer deaths reported over the weekend than on any weekend since the Independence Day holiday
  • There are now nearly 21 persons reported as recovered from the virus for each death
__________________
IMPERIUM NEPTUNI REGIS-Member of the Barf Chapter of the Ancient Order of Trusty Shellbacks
Yoshida Kogyo Kabushikigaisha
Team Triple Threat
Cygnus 12.02.10
Yakoo752 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 11:00 AM   #6621
brichter
Spun out freakshow
 
brichter's Avatar
 
AMA #: 1108554
Contributor ++++++++++++++
Barf Roadside Angel Contributor

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: On the bleeding edge
Motorcycles: Fast & Dirty!
Name: ID Thief!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snaggy View Post
So, serological testing determines if the body has produced antibodies to an infection.

In clinical speak, conversion means they’re present, comparative IgM and IgG concentrations help determine if the infection is pretty new, and titers estimate the quantitative vigor of the response.

The rapid lateral flow assays will be binary yes/no for antibodies, no real ability to determine anything else. Titers can be measured in a clinical lab, for instance, when using convalescent plasma, to make sure the material has a useful number of antibodies. Not much value otherwise at this time in patient care. Currently, comparative IgG and IgM assays are a research tool.

Rapid tests for antibody probably have had disappointing specificity, meaning a positive test doesn’t really prove an infection has occurred. If a lateral flow test is developed with a highly specific monoclonal antibody that does not react to previous corona infections, that will improve. I do not know when those will appear, or have yet.
So, useful in specific instances wrt convalescent plasma, but not very useful outside of that. Thanks for the info!
__________________
TMU Local 408

Originally posted by Cruisingram
You know, in Alaska, you don't lose your woman, you lose your turn!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archimedes View Post
it doesn't matter whose fault it was when you're lying in the graveyard.
brichter is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 08:37 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.