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Tesla Model 3: End of the Internal-Combustion Engine?

Climber said:
Yeah, if you believe some of the things posted in this thread, it's a Dead Company Walking for the last 4 years. :laughing
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Well, Elon has done well taking government grants and shareholder money, but still missing the boat on GAAP profits, lol.
 
Climber said:
Yeah, if you believe some of the things posted in this thread, it's a Dead Company Walking for the last 4 years. :laughing
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Only a fool thought Tesla was ever actually going to die, as that was always extremely unlikely. It was only a matter of valuation, which remains disconnected from reality, like cults often do. Tesla was never going out of business, even when it's true value was zero. It was/is being driven by government mandates that aren't going anywhere and it has a cult-like fanboy base. Stupid to ever bet against that.
 
Archimedes said:
Or anything remotely resembling positive cash flow return on investment.
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Minor details, minor details. :rofl As long as the US government is backing solar/electric/alternative energy it's not going out of business.
 
Killroy1999 said:
To be accurate, subsidies go all around

Conservative estimates put U.S. direct subsidies to the fossil fuel industry at roughly $20 billion per year

Ford took $6B government loan in 2009 — and debt still haunts company

U.S. government says it lost $11.2 billion on GM bailout
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Yup. However, most of the big auto companies also have long records of very profitable years. To be fair, if Tesla posts some actual GAAP profit for a couple years, my mind will change.
 
afm199 said:
Yup. However, most of the big auto companies also have long records of very profitable years. To be fair, if Tesla posts some actual GAAP profit for a couple years, my mind will change.
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Sure, but for those who dont know the history, Henry Ford went bankrupt 2 times and many people though the Model T was a ridiculous idea before he succeeded.
 
we will see another boost for tesla on the commercial side with their big rig coming out. theres one that shows up all the time at their "secret" building in sunnyvale
 
KWeezyXB12 said:
we will see another boost for tesla on the commercial side with their big rig coming out. theres one that shows up all the time at their "secret" building in sunnyvale
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Maybe. Right now there aren't enough recharge stations in the US to even begin to make electric trucks profitable, except on a few runs.
 
afm199 said:
Yup. However, most of the big auto companies also have long records of very profitable years. To be fair, if Tesla posts some actual GAAP profit for a couple years, my mind will change.
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The company is still building, there are a ton of upfront costs to starting anything that involves a lot of manufacturing.

They're still in the expansion phase, so I'm surprised that some on here are looking for actual profits at this stage.

You use what's available to keep going forward, the profits will come later if you have a sound model.

Right?
 
afm199 said:
Maybe. Right now there aren't enough recharge stations in the US to even begin to make electric trucks profitable, except on a few runs.
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i think my company bought the first 400 off the line but thats just hearsay. i dont see it working out with the range and time deadlines.
 
For other EVs, watched VW's ID4 (coming to the US) and ID3 (not coming to the US). These models should make a splash and help get VW out of its diesel scandal debt.

One comparison:
[YouTube]qkwfha_FrdI[/YouTube]


In other news, Tesla dropped good Q3 delivery results today.
[YouTube]tKfDrS4vE9E[/YouTube]
 
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wazzuFreddo said:
After buying my Volt, I am pretty sure my next commuter car will be 100% electric.

Judging from photos alone, I'd get the Chevy Bolt instead of the Tesla Model 3.
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lol, looks like I am 100% fail because I am looking at Ford Raptors now. :laughing
 
Killroy1999 said:
For other EVs, watched VW's ID4 (coming to the US) and ID3 (not coming to the US). These models should make a splash and help get VW out of its diesel scandal debt.

One comparison:
[YouTube]qkwfha_FrdI[/YouTube]


In other news, Tesla dropped good Q3 delivery results today.
[YouTube]tKfDrS4vE9E[/YouTube]
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Those Home Depot runs have been paying off.
 
afm199 said:
Well, Elon has done well taking government grants and shareholder money, but still missing the boat on GAAP profits, lol.
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Tesla's valuation reminds me of the dot com boom. Lot's of promising tech, loads of capital to bring a product to market, optimistic production and sales figures and falls short of generating a profit. Those of us old enough to remember, knows what comes next.
 
yodaisgod said:
Those Home Depot runs have been paying off.
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For anyone who does not know about this Tesla shenanigan, here is the article about faux wood trim used to hold the cooling system together.

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/36274...bled-together-with-home-depot-grade-fake-wood




wilit said:
Tesla's valuation reminds me of the dot com boom. Lot's of promising tech, loads of capital to bring a product to market, optimistic production and sales figures and falls short of generating a profit. Those of us old enough to remember, knows what comes next.
Click to expand...


Yeah, this is said a lot. I don't doubt that this is true, but for my curiosity, what metrics are you mentioning. I don't own any TSLA directly since I am just an index investor.

I always hearing about "Tesla valuation being out of crazy", "never return on investment", "never pay back debt", but I was surprised to see that Tesla was ranked top 3 or best automaker for the following metrics:

-liquidity ratio
-debt to revenue ratio,
-debt to market cap
-debt to cash ratio
-assets to liabilities

[YouTube]tQlGTgikb_M[/YouTube]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K5pxEl2pdw
 
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wilit said:
Tesla's valuation reminds me of the dot com boom. Lot's of promising tech, loads of capital to bring a product to market, optimistic production and sales figures and falls short of generating a profit. Those of us old enough to remember, knows what comes next.
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Not all of them failed, only the majority who didn't have a viable market to support them.

I think that Tesla will be around for years.
 
afm199 said:
Maybe. Right now there aren't enough recharge stations in the US to even begin to make electric trucks profitable, except on a few runs.
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FWIW, electric trucks aren’t meant for long haul trucking. The batteries are too heavy. If you put enough batteries on them to make them good for long haul trucking, the amount of batteries kills their useful load. But, they’re good for relatively local deliveries.
 
Killroy1999 said:
For anyone who does not know about this Tesla shenanigan, here is the article about faux wood trim used to hold the cooling system together.

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/36274...bled-together-with-home-depot-grade-fake-wood







Yeah, this is said a lot. I don't doubt that this is true, but for my curiosity, what metrics are you mentioning. I don't own any TSLA directly since I am just an index investor.

I always hearing about "Tesla valuation being out of crazy", "never return on investment", "never pay back debt", but I was surprised to see that Tesla was ranked top 3 or best automaker for the following metrics:

-liquidity ratio
-debt to revenue ratio,
-debt to market cap
-debt to cash ratio
-assets to liabilities

[YouTube]tQlGTgikb_M[/YouTube]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K5pxEl2pdw
Click to expand...

I don't have a degree in business whatever or finances. I know all that stuff means something to investors and analysts. But here's what I know. For a business to be successful and continue to survive, it has to make more money than it spends. If we look at the last 47 quarters, it's had 8 profitable quarters. Those 8 quarters add up to $852M. Those other 39 quarters add up to a $7.35B loss. If we just look at the last 3 years, they're running at a deficit of $1.7B despite there being 6 profitable quarters totaling $819M. If you look all the way back to their creation in 2003, those losses are even higher. I get that they've raised operating cash through stock releases and all that looks great in their moneyball way of analyzing a company's worth. Data pulled from here. https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/net_income

For Tesla to be profitable, they have to sell cars. Lots of cars. Elon is going after the lucrative US truck market because that's a great way to sell lots of units. Initially, he was expecting 700k reservations on the Cybertruck. According to this article, they've only got 200k reservations. Those 200k reservations will be delivered over the course of 3 years. To put this into perspective, Ford sells roughly 900k F-series trucks a year. Chevy/GMC sells roughly the same amount spread out over their 2 full-size and 2 mid-size trucks. They're also not going to manufacture the Cybertruck in Fremont. I believe they're building a new factory in Texas. That means there's going to be a tremendous capital investment to build the factory and it's going to be a few years before trucks start rolling off the assembly line. I can't imagine that's going to help their profitability.

I understand there's going to be a tremendous capital investment in starting a car company from scratch. Especially one that's as innovative as Tesla. I absolutely want to see Tesla succeed. I love that they're a California company based in the city I grew up in. I love the cars and the technology. I understand their value on paper is better than the other big car companies out there, but at some point, their value is going to need to be based in sales and profitability. There is a massive graveyard of car companies in history that have failed because they couldn't turn a consistent profit.
 
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