2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

[augustiron]

Do you own other large cap stocks? Because most of their CEOs are awful human beings, sort of comes with the territory.

If I had that criteria in my stock picking equation, I wouldn't own anything

 

[Blankpage]

How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick

If your finance lady tripled your IRA in just 4 years then listen to her only.

But please try and get her to join barf and post in this thread so we can all be rolling in dough.

 

[Killroy1999]

I would be taking as much gains as possible from Nvidia now. It's gone up 10x since 2021. I would sell Nvidia and rebalance the portfolio with the proceeds. Not investment advice.

+1

Roughly 35% to 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is directly tied to AI-linked or mega-cap tech stocks.

I think it would be good to rebalance to 15% AI-linked tech stocks. Above 15% would be "aggressive".

 

[WoodsChick]

The late Bob Brinker's advice was no more than 4% of any single holding. Is your finance lady interested in new clients by any chance?

Uh-oh...4%? Really? Hmm... I don't know if our gal is accepting new clients. I'll ask! Thank you!

I think the rule of thumb is 10 percent for one stock but my wife has violated that for decades with Apple and done very well.

It sounds like your adviser is on the ball so talk to her.

You DO want to be more cautious as you get older and portfolio diversification is a good thins.

We are heaviest in Real Estate with 53 percent of our total assets there, 25 percent in stocks, 7 percent in munis and the rest in money market.

I think we are moving some of that money market money to a dividend fund though;; SCHD.

10%. Ok, getting closer. Well, we are totally violating that rule of thumb, too, and of course because it's Nvidia we, too, have done well with it.
Oh, real estate! Right...I forgot about that. See what I mean? We paid $189k for our house 32 years ago. The last 2 houses listed on our street were both asking $1.495M. The first one sold right away for $2.6M. The 2nd one is pending after 2 open houses on one weekend, one of which was invitation only for the neighbors. That turned into a party as all our long-time neighbors were there! Notch one for Oakland, ya sunzabishes
Our Miramonte house doesn't really count as it was an inexpensive cabin when we bought it, and it's still an inexpensive cabin now, only with a ginormously expensive home insurance bill
Thank you GAJ!

I would be taking as much gains as possible from Nvidia now. It's gone up 10x since 2021. I would sell Nvidia and rebalance the portfolio with the proceeds. Not investment advice.

Thank you for the input! It's been crazy to watch the growth. I believe the initial investment happened in 2015, I think?

Be careful of the potential impact on your tax bracket, and if old enough for Medicare, beware the possible IRMAA implications. Consider the combined impact of those, along with RMA's (again, age-dependent.

I want to dump our Oracle stock because Ellison is such an awful human being, but my decision to do so impacts all of the above. My tax preparer / attorney retired this year, and I need to find and sit down with somebody qualified to walk us through the finer details.

Thank you, 900ss! We're not old enough for Medicare yet, but yeah, lots to consider re: taxes and such. In the beginning I wanted to dump anything to do with Elon and the rest of the icky awful people. Finance Lady said she totally understood where I was coming from, but as my financial advisor it was her job to maximize my wealth, and she was advising me to revisit my investment strategy.

 

[WoodsChick]

If your finance lady tripled your IRA in just 4 years then listen to her only.

But please try and get her to join barf and post in this thread so we can all be rolling in dough.

I have been listening to her! She seems to have a handle on stuff. I still worry about it, though. These are crazy times we're living in, and everything seems so volatile. I also wonder how long it can keep going, you know? It just seems like all this growth is just not sustainable, but what do I know?

+1

Roughly 35% to 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is directly tied to AI-linked or mega-cap tech stocks.

I think it would be good to rebalance to 15% AI-linked tech stocks. Above 15% would be "aggressive".

In our minds we are smack in the middle of "aggressive" and "conservative" when it comes to investments. According to your numbers we are way aggressive. Maybe that's why I'm worried about it? I swear life was easier when we were just hard-working stiffs with savings accounts and a mortgage!

 

[900ss]

I have been listening to her! She seems to have a handle on stuff. I still worry about it, though. These are crazy times we're living in, and everything seems so volatile. I also wonder how long it can keep going, you know? It just seems like all this growth is just not sustainable, but what do I know?



In our minds we are smack in the middle of "aggressive" and "conservative" when it comes to investments. According to your numbers we are way aggressive. Maybe that's why I'm worried about it? I swear life was easier when we were just hard-working stiffs with savings accounts and a mortgage!

You know a lot. PM sent, please disregard with apologies and regrets if not germane. Bogleheads.org is a very informative website.

 

[Reli]

If your account has quadrupled in only 4 years, I'm assuming that's because you kept contributing to it?

If not, your advisor must be doing something extremely risky. The S&P500 grew only about 80% over those 4 years. So she must have been playing with options, getting lucky with market timing strategies, or putting very high amounts of your money into individual companies instead of funds. I'm guessing at least one-third of your money in NVDA? I'd honestly think about dumping her, because what she's doing is essentially gambling.

 

[Blankpage]

Thank you for the input! It's been crazy to watch the growth. I believe the initial investment happened in 2015, I think?

Holding NVDA since 2015

Got a feeling we're gonna have more than one barber shopping for Aston Martins

 

[Blankpage]

If your account has quadrupled in only 4 years, I'm assuming that's because you kept contributing to it?

If not, your advisor must be doing something extremely risky. The S&P500 grew only about 80% over those 4 years. So she must have been playing with options, getting lucky with market timing strategies, or putting very high amounts of your money into individual companies instead of funds. I'd honestly think about dumping her, because what she's doing is essentially gambling.

True, I'd be so angry with her if she had exposed me to $$ millions in gains, so angry

 

[WoodsChick]

If your account has quadrupled in only 4 years, I'm assuming that's because you kept contributing to it?

If not, your advisor must be doing something extremely risky. The S&P500 grew only about 80% over those 4 years. So she must have been playing with options, getting lucky with market timing strategies, or putting very high amounts of your money into individual companies instead of funds. I'm guessing at least one-third of your money in NVDA? I'd honestly think about dumping her, because what she's doing is essentially gambling.

I wrote quadrupled, but when Blankpage said tripled in his post, I went back to check it out just to see. It is more than tripled, but less than quadrupled. I should probably edit that! But, yeah, I hear you. Thank you for your input, Reli.

Holding NVDA since 2015

Got a feeling we're gonna have more than one barber shopping for Aston Martins

Haha! Yeah, we won't be bringing one of those home any time soon, although they are pretty damned sexy. Where would we put the cat carriers and the litter box? Do they offer tow packages for them?

 

[900ss]

Well, if they don't offer them, you could afford to have some designed, manufactured and patented!

 

[Sharxfan]

I wrote quadrupled, but when Blankpage said tripled in his post, I went back to check it out just to see. It is more than tripled, but less than quadrupled. I should probably edit that! But, yeah, I hear you. Thank you for your input, Reli.



Haha! Yeah, we won't be bringing one of those home any time soon, although they are pretty damned sexy. Where would we put the cat carriers and the litter box? Do they offer tow packages for them?

If you're buying an AM then you just have someone drive the Benz Luxe van that carries your kitties to your destination. All of lifes problems can be solved by throwing money at them. You're welcome.

 

[Reli]

True, I'd be so angry with her if she had exposed me to $$ millions in gains, so angry

I wouldn't be angry, but I'd tell her to stop being so risky. I doubt there are any credentialed advisors who would put so much of their client's money into one stock. It certainly worked out for her, but tomorrow it might not.

 

[GAJ]

I wouldn't be angry, but I'd tell her to stop being so risky. I doubt there are any credentialed advisors who would put so much of their client's money into one stock. It certainly worked out for her, but tomorrow it might not.

As one gets older protecting the gains becomes of more importance, no question.

 

[WoodsChick]

I wouldn't be angry, but I'd tell her to stop being so risky. I doubt there are any credentialed advisors who would put so much of their client's money into one stock. It certainly worked out for her, but tomorrow it might not.

And therein lies the rub. That is my concern. My original question was about Nvidia stock specifically. The initial investment in Nvidia happened sometime in 2015. There have been no subsequent purchases of the stock, only what happens when it splits. We had a lot of the Magnificent Seven stuff but some of that has since been diversified. There seems to be a pretty good mix of small cap and large cap stuff in there. Eric and I brought a few of our own investments, in addition to the stocks and other accounts we inherited. It’s all done well, but due to the ridiculousness of Nvidia, the percentage it now represents in our portfolio is concerning.

Thank you, everyone! I appreciate everyone’s input. The wealth and breadth of knowledge here on teh BARF never ceases to amaze me

 

[Das MotorRad]

Typically when you inherit something, your cost basis is the FMV at the time of inheritance. That is why I mentioned 2021. May not take care of all of the sting of capital gains, but it will help

I would ask your financial advisor to confirm that your cost basis of your inherited stocks are properly reflecting their value as of 2021. If they are not, then you may be overestimating your unrealized gains.

 

[WoodsChick]

Typically when you inherit something, your cost basis is the FMV at the time of inheritance. That is why I mentioned 2021. May not take care of all of the sting of capital gains, but it will help

I would ask your financial advisor to confirm that your cost basis of your inherited stocks are properly reflecting their value as of 2021. If they are not, then you may be overestimating your unrealized

Thank you! We were just looking at that yesterday. Yes, they are being reflected properly.

 

[GAJ]

And therein lies the rub. That is my concern. My original question was about Nvidia stock specifically. The initial investment in Nvidia happened sometime in 2015. There have been no subsequent purchases of the stock, only what happens when it splits. We had a lot of the Magnificent Seven stuff but some of that has since been diversified. There seems to be a pretty good mix of small cap and large cap stuff in there. Eric and I brought a few of our own investments, in addition to the stocks and other accounts we inherited. It’s all done well, but due to the ridiculousness of Nvidia, the percentage it now represents in our portfolio is concerning.

Thank you, everyone! I appreciate everyone’s input. The wealth and breadth of knowledge here on teh BARF never ceases to amaze me

Are any of those monies in a Roth account?

That is where my wife put her AAPL 15 years ago or so.

 

[WoodsChick]

Are any of those monies in a Roth account?

That is where my wife put her AAPL 15 years ago or so.

Yes. Eric opened a Roth IRA when we bought the house in 1992, and we inherited one. There are a few that are non-Roth, as well.

 

[mercurial]

if you want to de-risk your NVDA position without immediately eating the taxes to sell it off, just sell some far dated, in the money call options against it. Your advisor should know how to do this, it's not a complicated transaction. You can very easily turn a high volatility equity position into the equivalent of a 10% high yield bond, with this kind of approach.