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Dow 5k possible?

uraniaclio

uraniaclio

Pain Kills
Joined
Feb 1, 2006
Location
Oakland
Moto(s)
03 Vespa Piaggio LT, 03 SV650 trackbike, 04 DL650, 06 D675
Name
Crom
Man...it's so tragic that it's comical now.
3 weeks ago, I predicted to a friend of mine that Dow will hit 8k rather facetiously. Now, I'm thinking that was conservative.
I think we'll hit 5k before it's all said and done.
The exchange is in full panic mode with redemptions forcing a lot of hedgefunds liquidating their positions in a rather painful manner. You saw that today with the sudden drop in the last 20 minutes or so before the close.
I was waiting for a little pop from the bailout to liquidate my positions but that never materialized. Shows you how much I know.

Are the roosters really coming home to roost?
 
I think we'll settle somewhere in the 6500 region. One small relief is that we go lower and lower, an absolute numerical change represents a greater percentage change. A year ago, 700 points would have only meant 5%, now it's close to 10%...The difference between 8500 and 5000 is a lot more significant, percentage-wise, than the drop from 12,000 to 8,500.

But if everybody just gives up and invests in tinfoil hat futures, we could be fucked even worse than that.
 
Every seller has a buyer. Ask who that is and why.

One thing is for sure, the distribution of wealth in America is being rapidly revised.
 
afm199 said:
Every seller has a buyer. Ask who that is and why.

One thing is for sure, the distribution of wealth in America is being rapidly revised.
Click to expand...

The problem is that those who are losing aren't necessarily those who caused the calamity. You listen to your advisor and talking heads on CNBC and they all say stay calm, stay the course. Now is a good time to buy in. Meanwhile, who are the ones liquidating to stem their losses? I hope these hedge funds have huge short term redemption penalties.
 
So what happens if the Dow DOES drop that far?
 
He told ya.




T054775A.jpg
 
mikev said:
So what happens if the Dow DOES drop that far?
Click to expand...

When it does drop that far, I'm gonna cash out whatever I have left and go to Vegas. Spend a few days at Olympic Garden bathing in champagne, stay in a suite instead of a room, hire a hooker named Sera with an "e", and drink myself to oblivion before betting all on red. And I will not be leaving Las Vegas.
 
Okay, sweet, now can somebody tell me what would realistically happen (besides urineclito going to vegas)
 
mikev said:
Okay, sweet, now can somebody tell me what would realistically happen (besides urineclito going to vegas)
Click to expand...

positive scenario-many of us would barter for goods because our dollar would be worthless. many americans cross the border and seek a better life in mexico.
 
mikev said:
Okay, sweet, now can somebody tell me what would realistically happen (besides urineclito going to vegas)
Click to expand...

I was talking to my bro in law earlier. The fooker escaped the crash because he was too lazy to re-allocate his retirement when he rolled over. He parked his money in money market/savings accounts while he got around to it. He got off easy due to laziness.
If you weren't invested in stocks, then nothing happens. If anything, you're richer because everyone else is poorer. If you have cash, it's absolutely the opportunity of a life time. You can buy blue chip shares at 30 cents on the dollar. If you have money, horde it. Or start buying rock solid stocks at small increments now.
 
rothmans said:
The crash has NOT happened yet...but tomorrow should be a good day for it...we have not even tripped any circuit breakers yet...but with W speaking and the Lehman auction...well.... :|
Click to expand...

Yeah. You're absolutely right.
I'm going completely offline tomorrow. It should make for a very interesting day. Good luck to everyone. :) Can't believe how badly everyone crashed around the world following the market finish today.
 
Are you just throwing darts kyong? Don't forget to do the financials on this plan...
Remember what the dow is: companies that sell things to make a profit.
 
And this is why the panic selling will eventually hit a bottom, and those wise and calm enough to buy will profit greatly. There's huge problems with the economy, but so many of these companies are still fundamentally sound. It's not like trillions of dollars of infrastructure has vanished.
 
Holeshot said:
Are you just throwing darts kyong? Don't forget to do the financials on this plan...
Remember what the dow is: companies that sell things to make a profit.
Click to expand...

So just cut my losses and sell dirt cheap stocks under water? Or just hold on firmly believing fundamentals will win out? It's a tough call. To capitalize, you should realize some losses and buy up better stocks. At the same time, it's tough selling good stocks due to market conditions.

cycle61 said:
And this is why the panic selling will eventually hit a bottom, and those wise and calm enough to buy will profit greatly. There's huge problems with the economy, but so many of these companies are still fundamentally sound. It's not like trillions of dollars of infrastructure has vanished.
Click to expand...

It's tough to fight the temptation to buy up battered blue chips though. Man...did you ever imagine GE under $20?
 
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