2020 Investment Thread

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So happy I didn’t panic and sell during the COVID crash. I considered it everyday but didn’t pull the trigger. Now up nearly 20% from my pre COVID high.

 

[byke]

prominent members of the financial community are endorsing Biden due to the stability he'll create vs. Trump. And Biden is looking like he'll win by a lot. I'm starting to have a feeling that the dip isn't going to be as bad as thought. Alternatively, if a big dip happens, the govt will once again push aside helping working class to prioritize printing money for wall street. I get the feeling the NYSE will be over 30k by the end of next year. I agree with getting dry powder ready if/when a dip happens, but I'm now starting to think that just steadily increasing positions won't be a losing strategy either...the opposite, really.

Isn't that part of the problem though, the dilution of prominent members' impact on markets due to the growth of emo morons? If anything, it seems like the positive outlook of prominent members of the fiscal community will act as a catalyst to further the hype..?

 

[Removed 3]

We've been warned of volatility during the election period. I don't think it's going to be as bad as the uncertainty in the market back in March.

I don't think we'll see serious defaults in loans til early or mid 2021, after the stimulus payments and unemployment benefits are no longer fueling the economy. Similarly in layoffs

Technology companies Are the future. The Cloud, automation/AI displacing workers, etc.

If you're heavily into the S&P 500 index, you're overweighted in the top technology companies. That could be a good or bad thing

Bloomberg tv displayed a graph last week. If you separated the FAANG stocks from other companies in the S&P 500, the growth of the tech stocks show as positive bar graphs and non-FAANG stocks show as negative bar graphs. A picture is worth a thousand words

 

[asdfghwy]

Your investment horizon is likely much longer than mine, so my more cautious approach might not be right for you.

I think if I were in your shoes, I'd likely largely ride it out. The wildcard there is if you need to maintain an emergency fund. I'd fund that now if you need to bank some living expenses.

yeah I'm in a weird space in my late 20s where I know I should be investing but don't know where to really start when it comes to short-medium term... so I just keep putting money into index funds with every paycheck (maxing 401k) so I don't feel super guilty about being too lazy to research short term investment strategies and executing. I did buy draftkings at IPO and sold in the $40s so that was cool, and apple seems like an easy buy. Palantir I'll admit I bought as part of the hype and because I believe in the space

i keep pretty heavy cash reserves, possibly to my own detriment but a lot of it is house downpayment money as well

 

[afm199]

yeah I'm in a weird space in my late 20s where I know I should be investing but don't know where to really start when it comes to short-medium term... so I just keep putting money into index funds with every paycheck (maxing 401k) so I don't feel super guilty about being too lazy to research short term investment strategies and executing. I did buy draftkings at IPO and sold in the $40s so that was cool, and apple seems like an easy buy. Palantir I'll admit I bought as part of the hype and because I believe in the space

i keep pretty heavy cash reserves, possibly to my own detriment but a lot of it is house downpayment money as well

You are in a great place to buy and hold. At 74 I'm in a place where I'd rather not take another huge long term hit.

 

[UDRider]

We've been warned of volatility during the election period. I don't think it's going to be as bad as the uncertainty in the market back in March.

I don't think we'll see serious defaults in loans til early or mid 2021, after the stimulus payments and unemployment benefits are no longer fueling the economy. Similarly in layoffs

Technology companies Are the future. The Cloud, automation/AI displacing workers, etc.

If you're heavily into the S&P 500 index, you're overweighted in the top technology companies. That could be a good or bad thing

Bloomberg tv displayed a graph last week. If you separated the FAANG stocks from other companies in the S&P 500, the growth of the tech stocks show as positive bar graphs and non-FAANG stocks show as negative bar graphs. A picture is worth a thousand words

Pretty sure those payments already ran out.
Also anyone remember one party shutting down government because they remembered they cared about deficit? I bet if Biden wins they will start remembering again, and will appose any additional stimulus.

On plus side seems like Fed is willing to prop up assets as long as it takes, so there is that.

 

[afm199]

There will be another round of stimulus, before or after. The Fed will continue to prop up assets. That's all positive for the market, it's utterly amazing that it has been propped up like that and most Americans aren't screaming at the top of their lungs.

However, we are far from done with Covid, and the number of new cases is skyrocketing, almost back to the high of several months ago. Thankfully the deaths have not.

I'm not filled with joy about the financial future, to say the least. I think the market is going to have some rocky times.

 

[Bowling4Bikes]

Isn't that part of the problem though, the dilution of prominent members' impact on markets due to the growth of emo morons? If anything, it seems like the positive outlook of prominent members of the fiscal community will act as a catalyst to further the hype..?

it certainly is a problem. but it isn't a problem we can do anything about. so...jump on the wave?

There will be another round of stimulus, before or after. The Fed will continue to prop up assets. That's all positive for the market, it's utterly amazing that it has been propped up like that and most Americans aren't screaming at the top of their lungs.

However, we are far from done with Covid, and the number of new cases is skyrocketing, almost back to the high of several months ago. Thankfully the deaths have not.

I'm not filled with joy about the financial future, to say the least. I think the market is going to have some rocky times.

it deserves rocky times, absolutely. will we get those times? I'm not as certain as I was.

 

[cfives]

So I made 124 dollars off of the Lopez/Lomenchenko fight, and want to start a Roth IRA with it this year, but don't want to lose it all in a potentially volatile time! What would you put it in to minimize risk around the election, and hopefully profit from it? I.E., can you fund a Roth IRA, but leave the money as cash?

 

[UDRider]

There will be another round of stimulus, before or after. The Fed will continue to prop up assets. That's all positive for the market, it's utterly amazing that it has been propped up like that and most Americans aren't screaming at the top of their lungs.

However, we are far from done with Covid, and the number of new cases is skyrocketing, almost back to the high of several months ago. Thankfully the deaths have not.

I'm not filled with joy about the financial future, to say the least. I think the market is going to have some rocky times.

There is no time before, Senate is busy doing other thing.
After... It's possible in couple of scenarios, based on permutation of who wins Whitehouse/Senate, one of them involves throwing away filibuster.

 

[afm199]

So I made 124 dollars off of the Lopez/Lomenchenko fight, and want to start a Roth IRA with it this year, but don't want to lose it all in a potentially volatile time! What would you put it in to minimize risk around the election, and hopefully profit from it? I.E., can you fund a Roth IRA, but leave the money as cash?

A Roth Ira is a type of trust. You can open one at Schwab or most other brokers, or a bank, etc. Sure. You can put the money in a Schwab Roth IRA and leave it as cash. You will earn .05% so you're be rollin.

The way the US economy is set up now, the government wants everyone to invest. Thus the interest rates are basically nil. You lose money every year to inflation. There's not maximization of gain as much as guaranteed risk.These are hard times financially.

You're joking, right?

 

[Removed 3]

What would a thread be without any sarcasm

 

[afm199]

 

[cfives]

A Roth Ira is a type of trust. You can open one at Schwab or most other brokers, or a bank, etc. Sure. You can put the money in a Schwab Roth IRA and leave it as cash. You will earn .05% so you're be rollin.

The way the US economy is set up now, the government wants everyone to invest. Thus the interest rates are basically nil. You lose money every year to inflation. There's not maximization of gain as much as guaranteed risk.These are hard times financially.

You're joking, right?

Thanks for the info, I did see that Schwab had CD's, but assume that you are committed for the length of the CD to mature. I actually was not joking in wanting to start a Roth IRA this year, but not put it in stocks or bonds until after the market potentially corrects after the upcoming US election. So probably not until early next year, maybe sooner if it dramatically drops in Nov/Dec.

 

[afm199]

Thanks for the info, I did see that Schwab had CD's, but assume that you are committed for the length of the CD to mature. I actually was not joking in wanting to start a Roth IRA this year, but not put it in stocks or bonds until after the market potentially corrects after the upcoming US election. So probably not until early next year, maybe sooner if it dramatically drops in Nov/Dec.

Schwab has both CD's and a standard FDIC insured bank that you can invest in. The bank account pays almost nothing, the CD's ditto.. The bank account can be set up as a sweep account, so any money in the account automatically goes into the bank account.

Thanks!

With the sheer amount of money going into the market, it's moot what will happen, a sudden up surge or sudden down surge or nothing. Like I said, the way the Fed is working is to force people to invest in stocks and bonds.

 

[Killroy1999]

every paycheck (maxing 401k)...

...I keep pretty heavy cash reserves

 

[Removed 3]

afm199, are you not waiting for 3Q earnings reports to come out before converting some of your holdings to cash?

 

[afm199]

afm199, are you not waiting for 3Q earnings reports to come out before converting some of your holdings to cash?

I'm caught in a vise!

i expect the Fed to keep the pressure on interest rates, and keep propping up stocks and bonds, so I am reluctantly long. I also can't afford to keep all my investment money in long positions when I'm this old. So I don't. I also expect a severe correction at some point, but the ability of fiat money to prop up the market has yet to see its limits reached in the US. The minute another currency becomes the Reserve currency, the dollar is going to take a ten year shit. This almost justifies changing social security to allow stock market investment as an alternative. It would prop up the market for another ten years and make some retirees wealthy.

I also am leery of any releases at this point, the market is so crazy and chaotic that it seems like nothing sticks.

What that all means is that I just liquidated a lot of tech for some cap gains and won't be buying back for a while. And bought some SPY

Disclaimer: If anyone does the opposite of what I do, you probably will be doing a smart thing. I consider it a miracle I make money on the market.

 

[Removed 3]

I appreciate the clarification as always

 

[jt2]

yeah I'm in a weird space in my late 20s where I know I should be investing but don't know where to really start when it comes to short-medium term... so I just keep putting money into index funds with every paycheck (maxing 401k) so I don't feel super guilty about being too lazy to research short term investment strategies and executing. I did buy draftkings at IPO and sold in the $40s so that was cool, and apple seems like an easy buy. Palantir I'll admit I bought as part of the hype and because I believe in the space

i keep pretty heavy cash reserves, possibly to my own detriment but a lot of it is house downpayment money as well

Sounds to me like you're doing the exact right thing. Lots of articles out there that show that constant investment in indexes (e.g., S&P500) with dividend reinvestment over time beats most any active strategy.

Schwab has both CD's and a standard FDIC insured bank that you can invest in. The bank account pays almost nothing, the CD's ditto.. The bank account can be set up as a sweep account, so any money in the account automatically goes into the bank account.

I thought they crippled the sweep function a while back. It used to automatically sweep into money market funds, but they killed that, don't recall why.