afm199
Well-known member
I like VCSH, the other two have appreciated quite a bit over five and ten years, which I attribute to the current QE more than anything.
But agreed, savings accounts and money markets are a joke anymore.
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2020 Investment Thread
- Thread starter afm199
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I like VCSH, the other two have appreciated quite a bit over five and ten years, which I attribute to the current QE more than anything.
But agreed, savings accounts and money markets are a joke anymore.
That is a Bearish outlook, you did not mention the possibility of years. It is a likely undeserved, but not terribly unexpected possibility in the current conditions.
afm199
Well-known member
I'll be astounded if that happens. Not because of Fed Policy, but of market pressure. The Fed can't lower any further, they have run out of tools.
I am a very new investor, and think that a 40 percent downturn is likely to self correct within a year or two, so maybe the Fed isn't out of tools just yet!
afm199
Well-known member
The only tools the Fed can play are lowering interest rates to stimulate and raising to offset inflation. When the rates approach zero, the next step is negative rates. Which happens in Europe. At this point, the idea of lowered rates is to stimulate the economy, which to an extent it is doing, but the real effect is to line the pockets of investors, for the time being. Simply put, every dog has its day. I've forgotten how many of these cycles I have seen, but I have not forgotten their cyclical nature.
arty
900ss
Well-known member
The only tools the Fed can play are lowering interest rates to stimulate and raising to offset inflation. When the rates approach zero, the next step is negative rates. Which happens in Europe. At this point, the idea of lowered rates is to stimulate the economy, which to an extent it is doing, but the real effect is to line the pockets of investors, for the time being. Simply put, every dog has its day. I've forgotten how many of these cycles I have seen, but I have not forgotten their cyclical nature.
Ah, the benefits of wisdom, age, and experience; and I mean no disrespect. The "Seat belts fastened" sign" is on. Buckle up!
arty
Tagged because this is something I need to learn about! At one point I had a lot of 401k money. Then a combination of bad choices caused me to lose everything. Not bad investment choices, bad life choices.
Now by a miracle I have enough money to start investing again and have built back up a growing 401k as well.
I ordered these two books from Amazon:
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
Investing All-in-One For Dummies (For Dummies (Lifestyle))
Are there any other books (or even websites) that people would recommend?
Now by a miracle I have enough money to start investing again and have built back up a growing 401k as well.
I ordered these two books from Amazon:
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
Investing All-in-One For Dummies (For Dummies (Lifestyle))
Are there any other books (or even websites) that people would recommend?
afm199
Well-known member
Graham's book is still a classic.
I use the Wall Street Journal, sometimes the Economist, and Seeking Alpha. Morningstar is good.
Ducky_Fresh
Treasure Hunter
I want to subscribe to Barrons, hardcopy this year. May just go do it now. That seems to be a very solid publishing.
I bought some Wisdom Tree Cloud ETF. See that playing out well, like how it has some small/mid caps in an every growing cloud economy.
My buddy is speculating on emerging markets a bit based on dollar impact. Could get interesting.
Personally, I started looking in to vacations in 2021 and it's incredible the price of higher end places is the same or higher, many places are still not open or available as well. Yet, I am thinking that demand is so pent up it will be an incredible recovery to the tourism industries - and eventually sports/entertainment. Thinking about putting some money back in to travel, but might be a little late and still very intrigued by the possibility that some companies will file bankruptcy still.
It's absolutely incredible to me how few companies have actually closed doors or called it quits. Very few it seems, yet you know they are losing massive sums of money remaining closed - like movie theaters, etc. How are THEY paying their rent?
I bought some Wisdom Tree Cloud ETF. See that playing out well, like how it has some small/mid caps in an every growing cloud economy.
My buddy is speculating on emerging markets a bit based on dollar impact. Could get interesting.
Personally, I started looking in to vacations in 2021 and it's incredible the price of higher end places is the same or higher, many places are still not open or available as well. Yet, I am thinking that demand is so pent up it will be an incredible recovery to the tourism industries - and eventually sports/entertainment. Thinking about putting some money back in to travel, but might be a little late and still very intrigued by the possibility that some companies will file bankruptcy still.
It's absolutely incredible to me how few companies have actually closed doors or called it quits. Very few it seems, yet you know they are losing massive sums of money remaining closed - like movie theaters, etc. How are THEY paying their rent?
afm199
Well-known member
Big companies have access to Capital, small ones don't. Carnival lines is still chugging along despite huge losses. Ditto the hotels. They can all still borrow. Little companies are shut out.
900ss
Well-known member
Bogleheads.org is a good website with many people asking lots of questions. Some good advice is offered; caveat emptor.
NorCalAthlete
O_o
Capital in the 21st Century is one I bought but haven't had a chance to crack open yet. It's definitely not casual reading material for most.
TY!
TY2!
One thing I have learned is to listen to real experts. I was a lawyer for 20 years and I have run into to many people who would just say (or think) the most silly things about the law. Especially on the internet. That whole dynamic made me realize that if there's a topic I don't know about (like investing) - study the experts!!!
THEN - once you know the foundation, then you can understand whether something is bollox or not. I actually see same thing with food recommendations (I am trying to eat better). Anyone with an internet account can promulgate all sorts of weird "culty" stuff. So I am starting with basics from authoritative sources like USDA (https://www.dietaryguidelines.gov/).
Not to derail - but learning how to learn has been key to me!!!
afm199
Well-known member
Yeah, when it comes to investing everyone is an expert. The guys like Graham will tell you how to become an expert.
And when there's been a good juicy bull market for a year, suddenly everyone is an expert again,
.And when there's been a good juicy bull market for a year, suddenly everyone is an expert again,
Ya - they are like "oh ya - TQQQ is a good ETF."
Then when market goes down the are like "why are you buying leveraged indexed funds?"
DesiDucati
Veteran
Is anyone excited about NIO day coming up? I ended up buying some $60 calls.
afm199
Well-known member
I don't invest in Chinese stocks. That's more like gambling.
afm199
Well-known member
Yup, my TIPS are happy today.
I think this selloff is a head shake, but I still expect a serious sell off.
Blankpage
alien
The XAU ratio has been out of whack the past decade. Hard to tell if gold miners are a deal or not anymore.
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