So, in my studies of tactical psychology, that would be an extreme risk in the case of a containment event, such as if the assailants were attempting to hold the people in question hostage to make demands, or forcing them to stay in place while they were systematically being robbed.
The opponent in that scenario has expressed a mode of aggressive defense, to "hold their ground," until their objective has been completed to their satisfaction.
In the event described on the BART Train, the enemy appears to be operating in a, "Smash and Grab," modus, which contains a heightened flight aspiration. This accelerated flight response is fundamental to this method of attack.
Sudden noise and the shock of violence by defenders in this scenario typically has an extremely disruptive effect on the assault, as it merely triggers the already heightened flight response. Only the most hardened operators typically do not panic and abandon their attack in the face of such a response.
I think the hoodlums in question were probably not trained to that extent.
This is exactly how I see this as well, and how I've been describing the situation even though as an arm chair QB.
There seems to be a general misunderstanding here regarding CCW holders and the use of force. This is understandable considering the culture of the Bay Area in general. In the rural counties (and other states), the view is quite different.
Having a concealed weapon does not mean that the most likely response is a draw and fire situation, far from it. Being in possession of a concealed weapon changes the response perspective in that I have a variety of choices to respond if possible or necessary. I am also always in condition yellow (with or without a concealed weapon).
I can assume command without ever revealing that I am carrying (shifting to condition orange). There are several steps I can take during escalation that have a good change of stopping the threat before any lethal force is applied. This is well documented in response scenarios so I'm not going to go into it here.
The absolute last thing any CCW holder wants to do is fire at someone (condition red). Personally, I don't think I could ever do it unless my life (or someone's life close to me) is in absolute imminent deathly peril.
But having that choice to respond with force allows me to make the best attempt to manage the situation to the best of my abilities, and in my favor. Every scenario has it's own unique circumstances and nothing ever plays out in the manner that someone is trained (LEOs know this well).
But, the alternative is submission. I choose not to take that route if at all possible. These crimes are often committed because the targets are unarmed and vulnerable (as I have mentioned). They happen because they are tolerated and in my opinion it is time to be intolerant and push back.
In areas where CCWs are issued, the word gets around to the skanks pretty quickly and the chances of getting randomly attacked are reduced (also documented). I'm cool with that.
Dan