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Inflation experts?

kingmoochr

kingmoochr

WHARRGARBL
Joined
Jun 1, 2008
Location
Pacifica
Moto(s)
KTM200EXC
Name
Greg
We know it's coming, is there anyone who has been studying it scientifically and can make an educated prediction about what is happening and what will happen? We're about to go into negotiations and don't want to just accept the status quo since it's apparent the world will not be status quo for a while to come...
 
kingmoochr said:
We know it's coming, is there anyone who has been studying it scientifically and can make an educated prediction about what is happening and what will happen? We're about to go into negotiations and don't want to just accept the status quo since it's apparent the world will not be status quo for a while to come...
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There are as many inflation experts as there are people with an opinion. If you listen to latter day MMT exponents or Paul Krugman, it's not going to happen and if it does, it's ok anyway.

The older generation says that money supply is the driving force behind inflation. If that's the case, we're in some trouble.

However, I can assure you that inflation will continue to be a factor to deal with, lol.

In real estate, more inflation will increase the amount that a mortgage costs and thus have a force in driving real estate prices down. As intended.

And the answer is 42.
 
Many of the experts are still saying that it is "transitory". Those same experts have been dead wrong in the past so I wouldn't bet the farm.

I've got a sizable chunk of cash sitting on the sidelines right now, and I'm honestly not sure where to park it. By all traditional measures every asset class is overvalued right now. CDs and bonds are a waste of time as well due to low yields.

I've already gone as high into gold as I can stand.

Leaving the rest in cash worries me because of the staggering and unprecedented amount of money being shoveled into the system - my gut tells me we're going to see a LOT more inflation than anyone is letting on, maybe even worse than the 70s. :dunno
 
HappyHighwayman said:
Inflation is not all bad. It does drive higher wages.
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Yeehaw, I’m getting a 5.9% increase in January. In other news the CPI from September 2020 to September 2021 is 5.9%.:rofl
All government figures of course, hopefully you’ll get at least 6% in higher wages and no new taxes.
 
jt2 said:
Many of the experts are still saying that it is "transitory". Those same experts have been dead wrong in the past so I wouldn't bet the farm.

I've got a sizable chunk of cash sitting on the sidelines right now, and I'm honestly not sure where to park it. By all traditional measures every asset class is overvalued right now. CDs and bonds are a waste of time as well due to low yields.

I've already gone as high into gold as I can stand.

Leaving the rest in cash worries me because of the staggering and unprecedented amount of money being shoveled into the system - my gut tells me we're going to see a LOT more inflation than anyone is letting on, maybe even worse than the 70s. :dunno
Click to expand...

sat a good bit to the side during a lot of the trump years. Should have bought the covid dip but too scared to do that too. Regret all of that :laughing
 
Welcome to my semi-day-trader-nightmare. I listen to economic "experts" all day. And they are mostly full of poo-poo-doo-doo.

Common cow paddies:
Inflation only matters when material, energy, and real estate prices go up.
Apple and Microsoft raising prices is NOT inflation. It's pricing power.
Wages going up in union jobs is inflation. High paid HTML jobs in silicon valley is not inflationary, it's market demand.

Don't believe ANY of it. :x The cost of everything, except basic materials, has gone up faster than they claim for decades. Materials may finally catch-up and be priced appropriately in relation to an ipad.
 
jt2 said:
Leaving the rest in cash worries me because of the staggering and unprecedented amount of money being shoveled into the system - my gut tells me we're going to see a LOT more inflation than anyone is letting on, maybe even worse than the 70s. :dunno
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That's the best part about the internets.

Get stuck in the proper forums, and you'd think that we were going to have an explosive inflationary event any day now...for the past 20 years.

On the other hand, as they say, "that which can not go on, won't". But I'm not savvy enough on global economics to really have an opinion on that.

We've been hearing scary stuff forever. We've had "spasms" of sorts, but no broken camels.

On the bright side, the USD is still the currency of record for the planet, so that helps us out a lot. With the fall of the petrodollar, that impact will lessen, but that's not going to be for some time.
 
HappyHighwayman said:
Inflation is not all bad. It does drive higher wages.
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That doesn't mean it's good. The higher wages offset the higher prices. Zero sum game. Inflation is a silent insult that steals money from your pocket without you even noticing. Got $10k in the bank? A year from now it will say $10k but will be worth $9.45k.
 
Killroy1999 said:
If you have money as cash in money market its bleeding value.
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Oh, believe me I'm painfully aware of that.

But I don't trust this market valuation either. The Schiller PE is sitting above 38. The only time in history it has been higher was in December 1999 when it was 44 before everything went to shit. It wasn't even this high in 1929.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

berth said:
That's the best part about the internets.

Get stuck in the proper forums, and you'd think that we were going to have an explosive inflationary event any day now...for the past 20 years.
Click to expand...

True. But between the Fed, and "Infrastructure" spending by congress, we've never pumped this much money into the economy in such a short time, not by an order of magnitude. To say that nobody seems to know how that will end up is an understatement.

On the bright side, the USD is still the currency of record for the planet, so that helps us out a lot. With the fall of the petrodollar, that impact will lessen, but that's not going to be for some time.
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It does, but how soon that changes depends on how froggy China gets.
 
kingmoochr said:
We know it's coming, is there anyone who has been studying it scientifically and can make an educated prediction about what is happening and what will happen? We're about to go into negotiations and don't want to just accept the status quo since it's apparent the world will not be status quo for a while to come...
Click to expand...

Oh crap. This is totally different than what I was thinking of. Guess I'm out then.
 

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Eldritch said:
Oh crap. This is totally different than what I was thinking of. Guess I'm out then.
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Good on ya for the positive spin! I guessed you were dolling up the thread when I got the email update.
 
Ok, so, when trying to inflate something, if you only have your own lung power, take deep breaths all the way until you feel it in your gut, and blow steadily into what you are blowing up. If it does not have a way to automatically stop air from escaping to your best to close off the plug in between breaths to avoid letting the air escape.

In no time your blow up doll will be ready for... whatever you plan on doing with it.


In all seriousness, The US dollar has the backing of the US government, as long as the US has as much influence over the global economy as it does, we will not see out of control inflation. Inflation happens, some years it's a bit less, some years it's a bit more. It does not make sense to freak out about it, on it's own. Right now, we can pretty well trace the cause of the rise in price of some goods to compounding supply chain issues, triggered by COVID, though the root problems have existed for a while. That is important because the way to solve supply chain issues is way different than the way to solve uncontrolled inflation.
 
rodr said:
Can your contract have a clause that periodically adjusts for inflation?
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Standard format has been a nominal % yearly as a cola. Trying to gauge how worth it it is to fight for a higher % or try and get it up front. I don't think we'd be able to tie it to anything unless there's some sort of standard source for that % used in the same fashion by others.
 
Do whatever you think is right. Don't take the advice of barf. If I had taken the advice on barf at the time, I would not have bought a house or bitcoin. Both of which have let me retire this fall.
Dyor and trust your gut.
 
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