Putting aside the tax angle, the math is pretty simple if you intend to swap cars every few years.
Simply add up the costs of each after X years:
<purchase price + taxes and fees> - <sales proceeds> = cost1
<total of up front costs + lease payments> - <equity at end if any> = cost2
For a lot of scenarios, cost2 will be lower for shorter terms.
let's punch in some numbers just so i understand this
buying <$50,000 + $5,000 (10%)> let's say you have it for 3 years and sell it for $25,000 (50% depreciation)
Your total cost to buy after resale/trade in was $30,000
Now lease that same vehicle for 3 years and the manufacturer also gives the vehicle a 50% depreciation value your total payments will be at least $25,000 + $2,500 for tax and fees (10%)
Now stan was saying lease agreements are typically 2% higher rates than ordinary loans, so assuming a 0% loan on the first vehicle and a 2% agreement on the second, using a lease calculator i'm coming up with
total cost to lease for 36 months comes in at $29,750
guess the gamble is in the mileage limits vs service costs and if you itemize the lease gets a bit cheaper
is it safe to assume the manufacturers depreciation estimate is always on the high side though, or else they'd be taking on all the risk? Math wise real world i can't see how leasing a vehicle is cheaper than buying, short of large mechanical cost, which should still fall under the warranty periods for the lengths of times we're discussing.
Only way i see this making any sense at all is if you want lower month to month payments and always seeing yourself having a payment by getting a new car every year or two.
Did i miss something?