Sorry, not buying it.
I will say a singular dynamic today that most certainly has changed out of sync with the rest of it all, is insurance. Insurance is crazy for everything and everybody.
His chart about bike sales include the '04-'06 peak when housing was backing consumer debt. That inflated a lot of industries, and then we see the '08 crash (and note the industry didn't crash to 0 as it may look at a casual glance, but it did take a 40+% hit). After that, growth is mostly flat, but there was a COVID spike, and that spike seems to be enduring.
Mind, that doesn't mean new people are coming into the fold, that's just bike sales. But the OG crowd isn't enough to keep the industry alive, so there must be some young blood somewhere.
Testing hasn't changed as far as I can tell, save for today folks (in CA) need to take a rider course, which was not required when I got my license. But I had to take the general written test along with a bike test, that's not new. While the rider course may cost money, its most certainly money well spent.
Gear is cheaper today (inflation adjusted), and we have a lot more of it. Bikes are about the same (they're also a lot better with the modern electronics). A CB500 is basically the same MSRP as my original '86 Radian was, adjusted, and it's quite likely a better bike plus the electronics and ABS and such. Yes there are expensive bikes, there have always been expensive bikes. But, boy, are there a lot of bikes.
I can't speak to communities, we're pretty friendly here I think. But I can appreciate it being intimidating to younger folks. I remember way back going to a random local poker run, and yea, I was the odd (young) man out.
As for "freedom", I certainly didn't ride for "freedom", I did it for transportation. I did it because I was sick of buses. I had my Class M for 2 years before I went back and got my Class C.
Harley is a standout because Harley is Harley. They're not the industry. As for other dealerships closing, that can be all sorts of reasons not related to riding, but it does mean that riders aren't enough to overcome those. Doesn't necessarily mean doom and gloom.
My local BMW dealer seems busy. They seem to move a bunch of bikes through that floor. When I'm there, I see young folks there with their bikes. I wish they had a better accessory selection, but I can see how online makes that a real challenge. Other than that, seem like nice folks.
BMW could use a street 500-600 I think to fit the gap between the 300 and 750s. But that's me. I'd like to see new sport tourers as well, but shows what I know. I'm sure BMW knows their market much better than I. I appreciate that BMW is not Honda.
I'm not saying "don't do anything about it", for assorted definitions of "it", but I don't think its doing a wing over and pirouetting into the ground either.
I think Ryan F9s point about e-bikes and how you can basically just buy one and go (no registration, no insurance, no gear requirements). Those are the modern scooters. Urban mobility. I know when I started on my scooter, I certainly noted with a bit of envy watching a 750 ride off into the distance from a stoplight while my throttle is pinned and I beating the sides with a crop trying to get across the intersection. I don't know if e-bike folks have that same feeling, since they don't necessarily share the road with motorcycles. So I don't know if the e-bikes are a gateway or not.
I also longed for Honda 500 Interceptor. Boy did I want one of those, but they were too much money. My Radian was a good deal. And I got it with only 21% interest rate!
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Again, not saying there aren't changes in society and industry, but we'll muddle through. Can't look back to when we used to get gas, oil, and tires and get change back from the nickel.
