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Stock Thread 2018

Even if bonds have a rebound this month or next, they'll only go up a couple percent, and then they'll start falling again, showing probably zero return for the year (or even negative).

There's lots of different kinds of bonds though.
 
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warned last summer of an imminent bursting of the bond bubble. I'm not one to typically believe what authorities tell me, but Greenspan... I mean, talk about a guy who knows bubbles.

This next leg of the decade-old 'financial crisis' (it was never fixed yanno) is corporate debt. It is an analog to the consumer debt bubble that burst in 08.
 
At least a few hundred billion in treasury bonds are supposed to be sold off to complete the '08 theft of the American taxpayer. Supposed to start this year and over whatever period, I don't know. But, if there's a supply and demand effect, then an oversupply should push the price down.
 
So the bond is not making any money. Stock are taking a dump.
What's left to make money?
CD and Saving. lol
 
Commodities will be the best-performer this year, IMO

But that's only important if you like to gamble (market-time). If you don't, and you don't need this money for 10+ years, stocks are still the best choice. Park it in VT and forget it.
 
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Note on bonds.

They historically are not closely tied to stocks nor track them. US govt issue ( whose interest rate pretty much dictates corporate bonds) stayed in a very tight range of 4-6% from the twenties to the seventies. They briefly spiked to 12% or so
in the early eighties and then worked their way back down to today's paltry yields. The period above 6% was roughly twenty years.

So it is quite possible that rates may rise ( probably) but doubtful to me that they are suddenly going to go from 2.5% to 15%.

What's the point of that? Bonds may lose face value but they pay interest. Stock may lose face value but many don's. That's why old guys buy bonds. They don't expect to be around thirty more years.
 
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And to think people were harping on me for *not* getting back into the market around New Years, after selling some funds and sitting on the cash...
 
The national debt is 20 trillion, if we don't count those pesky unfunded liabilities we don't talk about in the corporate press. Current service cost is 0.42-0.43 trillion, they say, and we are running permanent deficits.

10% of 20 trillion is 2 trillion.

Are bond yields heading higher? Can they go higher without imploding the whole sordid mess?

It should be abundantly clear that there is no happy ending to the exponentially accruing endless deficit situation. The bonds and the currency will be ultimately be destroyed.

The question is one of allocation of damage, and its effect on the nominal asset bubbles.

If the banking cartel is allied with Trump and wishes to usher inflation in softly - the boiled frog approach - they will print to infinity, buy all the bonds, and keep yields low. We'll all be millionnaires at last.

If the cartel wishes to bring about a crash, buy up distressed assets and pin it on Trump, they will stop supporting the bonds, yields will spike, and assets will be wiped out worse than in 2008.

Given the recent rise of anti-globalist sentiments around the world, and the troubled dynamics domestically - the neocon traitors (to prominently include Clintons, of course) under some pressure - and the propensity of the banksters to blow serial bubbles, I would not discount the second alternative. Bring it all down, everyone will be scrambling to survive, and the macro-scale looting and evasion of justice can proceed.

Not that there's much to loot anymore. Are they going to loot non-dischargeable student debt in which people are drowning? The $400 half the damn country can't muster up in an emergency, per that study? Things are already extremely f*cked. But then, look at Brazil and Mexico. It can get much worse yet. Favelas from sea to shining sea.
 
zanshin said:
The national debt is 20 trillion, if we don't count those pesky unfunded liabilities we don't talk about in the corporate press. Current service cost is 0.42-0.43 trillion, they say, and we are running permanent deficits.

10% of 20 trillion is 2 trillion.

Are bond yields heading higher? Can they go higher without imploding the whole sordid mess?

It should be abundantly clear that there is no happy ending to the exponentially accruing endless deficit situation. The bonds and the currency will be ultimately be destroyed.

The question is one of allocation of damage, and its effect on the nominal asset bubbles.

If the banking cartel is allied with Trump and wishes to usher inflation in softly - the boiled frog approach - they will print to infinity, buy all the bonds, and keep yields low. We'll all be millionnaires at last.

If the cartel wishes to bring about a crash, buy up distressed assets and pin it on Trump, they will stop supporting the bonds, yields will spike, and assets will be wiped out worse than in 2008.

Given the recent rise of anti-globalist sentiments around the world, and the troubled dynamics domestically - the neocon traitors (to prominently include Clintons, of course) under some pressure - and the propensity of the banksters to blow serial bubbles, I would not discount the second alternative. Bring it all down, everyone will be scrambling to survive, and the macro-scale looting and evasion of justice can proceed.

Not that there's much to loot anymore. Are they going to loot non-dischargeable student debt in which people are drowning? The $400 half the damn country can't muster up in an emergency, per that study? Things are already extremely f*cked. But then, look at Brazil and Mexico. It can get much worse yet. Favelas from sea to shining sea.
Click to expand...

Cmon dude, keep the political stuff to the political subforum.
 
This dip like all the others are just great opportunities despite the naysayers and perpetual political hacks with agendas.

All anyone has to do is look back, back past BARF and read posts from past dips and corrections to see the same angst and fear mongering. Telling you, just change a few words and it all reads the same.

Few can time markets of any kind, including the peice of oranges and apples. Time in the market though, old school as it is, works wonders for your retirement. Investment also is what creates a lot of jobs because contrary to a lot of talk, jobs are not presents from the government, they often come from people classified as the wealthy scourge who take risks and create opportunity not only for themselves but most of the country as well. Chances are that most people work for someone wealthy as measured by those constantly blaming them for everything from the weather to the color of sand.

Even Bitcoin, which I have been vocal about as being pure speculation has value and those speculating and making money should be applauded.

The scammers who pump and dump? Hello? That has been going on since the first human has a peach and another wanted it. Geesh.

But take just the past 10-20 years. 20 might be too long for the majority here it seems so even 10 works unless you're still in school becoming a prisoner of a data controlled life. Not trying to be too specific but just look at:

Msft
Goog
Amzn
Nasdaq indicies

Notice anything? Now with meager means, anyone could have even casually but steadily invested just small amounts, like $30 and as you made more invested more. What would be the result? You'd be laughing at all the naysayers and doom and gloomer and even a recession wouldn't bother you.

Like I said, the same D&G stuff was being said in 2000 then around 2008 and look at all markets including housing today.

10 years from now the comparatively small investor will still be smiling and the D&Gers will still be saying its all over. The difference will be you'll be as those before you were and are, living in a nice house, not worried about where things come moneywise and pondering what new bike you want to buy. The D&Gers will be counting you as one of the bad people who don't deserve what you have because they don't have it. Then you'll understand what all the negativity about the market and such was really all about because they'll be around then too, saying the same things because they didn't participate and you did and why should you have when they do not?
 
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Chet said:
So the bond is not making any money. Stock are taking a dump.
What's left to make money?
CD and Saving. lol
Click to expand...

anyone bank with Patelco?

this is not a typo, no lie

2.25% APY, minimum $1,000.00 deposit, 24m CD,
no bal cap. this is 3x the nat'l avg
 
Nice rate, but two years is a long time to tie up money when it is a near-certainty that rates will continue to rise toward historical norms. I'd wager that six months or a year from now, that rate won't look so good.
 
Schnellbandit said:
This dip like all the others are just great opportunities despite the naysayers and perpetual political hacks with agendas.

All anyone has to do is look back, back past BARF and read posts from past dips and corrections to see the same angst and fear mongering. Telling you, just change a few words and it all reads the same.
Click to expand...

Uh Huh
 
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