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What will it take to convince you of climate change?

Absolutely no one should be listening to me on motogp for anything other than entertainment :laughing:laughing

I listen to you on motogp. I just choose to ignore you on your denial of a new v4 honda.
 
But what if they're not unprecedented and temperatures have risen higher in the past than we believe? If temperatures rose high enough, ice could melt in polar regions, thereby erasing the record of CO2 levels in that period.

That would also show up in the record as an abrupt jump in dates. We would know there was a gap of X many years where the average temperatures were above freezing.
 
TZrider are we going to hear your thoughts on the answers coors and I gave you or should we just assume radio silence?
 
I cant believe people contine to cite chricton, a FICTION writer, as an actualk science paper. chriton saw that there's a massive audience for that POV, and wrote a corresponding book

He was spot on about his dinosaur predictions.

3E6.jpg
 
That would also show up in the record as an abrupt jump in dates. We would know there was a gap of X many years where the average temperatures were above freezing.

How would we know there was a gap? Are they carbon-dating each ice layer? I was under the impression that they basically count the layers. It seems to me if layers are missing, you might be able to tell, but you'd have no idea how many were missing.

TZrider are we going to hear your thoughts on the answers coors and I gave you or should we just assume radio silence?

Coors gave me a name; the web site for that researcher doesn't address the question. I haven't emailed the researcher.

Coors also stated the ice cores correlate to tree rings, showing the relationship of temperature increase to CO2. It wasn't obvious to me whether he feels this tells us anything about the possibility of "missing ice." The oldest living tree is ~4,000 years; not much time. If he is also including dated fossilized trees, this could extend the record farther back, but I don't know if he was including this. You'd have to go back about 125,000 years to find the previous peak CO2 levels in the record. I doubt we have the means to establish a reliable, uninterrupted tree ring record back that far.

Coors' other commentary was interesting, but not really related to whether we're missing ice that would have shown higher concentrations of CO2 than what we can see in the record.

In any case, I have plenty of respect for what he says and the manner in which he says it.

I don't recall you giving an answer, other than an interactive page. Tight correlation between CO2 levels and temperature; the other correlations vary somewhat.

The sedimentary data in that tool is measuring completely different things than did the ANDRILL cores, which were showing a change in deposition, driven by a change in meltwater flows. They are localized to southern Antarctica and show there have been vast melts in the past that are about 8x higher than previously thought. The researchers' takeaway is that a large melt may be ahead of us, one that could dramatically affect worldwide sea levels. They don't speculate about the implications of past melts on the ice record.

It has always seemed to me to be an obvious question. It's almost like it gets left out of the conversation on purpose.

Maybe it's obvious, but this isn't anywhere near my field. At the same time, I've taken a couple of trips to the High Arctic and observed receding glaciers first-hand. I've walked on miles of dry granite that were under hundreds of feet of ice just ten years prior. I've examined Inuit ruins from different periods, whose construction indicates different climate (it actually having been warmer 4,000 years ago than 1,000 years ago). I also visited with a researcher on the ground who was conducting experiments on plots of tundra, some out in the open, some with reflectors mounted to expose the ground to more sunlight. He was trying to establish differences in plant sizes under different temperature ranges to be able to better interpret what they were finding in the fossil record. All of this is to say I have more than a passing interest in the subject.

On one level, it should just be common sense that we need to reduce pollution for lots of reasons. Before climate change was even being discussed, I was camping in the winter in mountains, seeing a brown haze between the peaks where there had been clear skies a decade earlier. I'm not a stranger to being concerned about the environment. What's tangible to me is that we currently have an annual snowpack with high levels of soot, 80% of which has blown over from Asia and which causes an acid surge in our streams every spring.

It's relatively easy to see the effects of particulate pollution. It's harder for me to tell how much our CO2 and other gaseous emissions are affecting climate. Many of the remediation efforts will benefit us anyway; reducing particulates, possibly allowing greater energy independence and so on. They may or may not impact climate noticeably.
 
How would we know there was a gap? Are they carbon-dating each ice layer? I was under the impression that they basically count the layers. It seems to me if layers are missing, you might be able to tell, but you'd have no idea how many were missing.



Coors gave me a name; the web site for that researcher doesn't address the question. I haven't emailed the researcher.

Coors also stated the ice cores correlate to tree rings, showing the relationship of temperature increase to CO2. It wasn't obvious to me whether he feels this tells us anything about the possibility of "missing ice." The oldest living tree is ~4,000 years; not much time. If he is also including dated fossilized trees, this could extend the record farther back, but I don't know if he was including this. You'd have to go back about 125,000 years to find the previous peak CO2 levels in the record. I doubt we have the means to establish a reliable, uninterrupted tree ring record back that far.

Coors' other commentary was interesting, but not really related to whether we're missing ice that would have shown higher concentrations of CO2 than what we can see in the record.

In any case, I have plenty of respect for what he says and the manner in which he says it.

I don't recall you giving an answer, other than an interactive page. Tight correlation between CO2 levels and temperature; the other correlations vary somewhat.

The sedimentary data in that tool is measuring completely different things than did the ANDRILL cores, which were showing a change in deposition, driven by a change in meltwater flows. They are localized to southern Antarctica and show there have been vast melts in the past that are about 8x higher than previously thought. The researchers' takeaway is that a large melt may be ahead of us, one that could dramatically affect worldwide sea levels. They don't speculate about the implications of past melts on the ice record.

It has always seemed to me to be an obvious question. It's almost like it gets left out of the conversation on purpose.

Maybe it's obvious, but this isn't anywhere near my field. At the same time, I've taken a couple of trips to the High Arctic and observed receding glaciers first-hand. I've walked on miles of dry granite that were under hundreds of feet of ice just ten years prior. I've examined Inuit ruins from different periods, whose construction indicates different climate (it actually having been warmer 4,000 years ago than 1,000 years ago). I also visited with a researcher on the ground who was conducting experiments on plots of tundra, some out in the open, some with reflectors mounted to expose the ground to more sunlight. He was trying to establish differences in plant sizes under different temperature ranges to be able to better interpret what they were finding in the fossil record. All of this is to say I have more than a passing interest in the subject.

On one level, it should just be common sense that we need to reduce pollution for lots of reasons. Before climate change was even being discussed, I was camping in the winter in mountains, seeing a brown haze between the peaks where there had been clear skies a decade earlier. I'm not a stranger to being concerned about the environment. What's tangible to me is that we currently have an annual snowpack with high levels of soot, 80% of which has blown over from Asia and which causes an acid surge in our streams every spring.

It's relatively easy to see the effects of particulate pollution. It's harder for me to tell how much our CO2 and other gaseous emissions are affecting climate. Many of the remediation efforts will benefit us anyway; reducing particulates, possibly allowing greater energy independence and so on. They may or may not impact climate noticeably.

Well said.
 
How would we know there was a gap? Are they carbon-dating each ice layer? I was under the impression that they basically count the layers. It seems to me if layers are missing, you might be able to tell, but you'd have no idea how many were missing.



Coors gave me a name; the web site for that researcher doesn't address the question. I haven't emailed the researcher.

Coors also stated the ice cores correlate to tree rings, showing the relationship of temperature increase to CO2. It wasn't obvious to me whether he feels this tells us anything about the possibility of "missing ice." The oldest living tree is ~4,000 years; not much time. If he is also including dated fossilized trees, this could extend the record farther back, but I don't know if he was including this. You'd have to go back about 125,000 years to find the previous peak CO2 levels in the record. I doubt we have the means to establish a reliable, uninterrupted tree ring record back that far.

Coors' other commentary was interesting, but not really related to whether we're missing ice that would have shown higher concentrations of CO2 than what we can see in the record.

In any case, I have plenty of respect for what he says and the manner in which he says it.

I don't recall you giving an answer, other than an interactive page. Tight correlation between CO2 levels and temperature; the other correlations vary somewhat.

The sedimentary data in that tool is measuring completely different things than did the ANDRILL cores, which were showing a change in deposition, driven by a change in meltwater flows. They are localized to southern Antarctica and show there have been vast melts in the past that are about 8x higher than previously thought. The researchers' takeaway is that a large melt may be ahead of us, one that could dramatically affect worldwide sea levels. They don't speculate about the implications of past melts on the ice record.

It has always seemed to me to be an obvious question. It's almost like it gets left out of the conversation on purpose.

Maybe it's obvious, but this isn't anywhere near my field. At the same time, I've taken a couple of trips to the High Arctic and observed receding glaciers first-hand. I've walked on miles of dry granite that were under hundreds of feet of ice just ten years prior. I've examined Inuit ruins from different periods, whose construction indicates different climate (it actually having been warmer 4,000 years ago than 1,000 years ago). I also visited with a researcher on the ground who was conducting experiments on plots of tundra, some out in the open, some with reflectors mounted to expose the ground to more sunlight. He was trying to establish differences in plant sizes under different temperature ranges to be able to better interpret what they were finding in the fossil record. All of this is to say I have more than a passing interest in the subject.

On one level, it should just be common sense that we need to reduce pollution for lots of reasons. Before climate change was even being discussed, I was camping in the winter in mountains, seeing a brown haze between the peaks where there had been clear skies a decade earlier. I'm not a stranger to being concerned about the environment. What's tangible to me is that we currently have an annual snowpack with high levels of soot, 80% of which has blown over from Asia and which causes an acid surge in our streams every spring.

It's relatively easy to see the effects of particulate pollution. It's harder for me to tell how much our CO2 and other gaseous emissions are affecting climate. Many of the remediation efforts will benefit us anyway; reducing particulates, possibly allowing greater energy independence and so on. They may or may not impact climate noticeably.

Go back to your original post and you'll see it right under.
 
I'm already convinced that climate change is a grave enough risk to or lives that we should do something about it.

Its a risk management thing.

Doing so will clean our air, water, save our fossil fuels for a rainy day and create new industries.
 
The problem I have with "climate change" is that it seems axiomatic that climate does change and has done so over the millennia with little or no input from man. Now "they" want me to believe that man is somehow responsible for "bad" things currently happening. This seems all based on statistical studies. Hence all the charts, etc.

I'm reminded of Disraelis maxim:

There are Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

Call me unconvinced.

A few years ago the statistical models were failing, so some scientists in England began a massive coverup.
I'm unconvinced.:wow
 
The problem I have with "climate change" is that it seems axiomatic that climate does change and has done so over the millennia with little or no input from man. Now "they" want me to believe that man is somehow responsible for "bad" things currently happening. This seems all based on statistical studies. Hence all the charts, etc.

I'm reminded of Disraelis maxim:

There are Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

Call me unconvinced.

A few years ago the statistical models were failing, so some scientists in England began a massive coverup.
I'm unconvinced.:wow

Not to beat a dead horse, and not arguing any point. I am curious what it would take to convince you that it is happening. Again, not arguing whether or not it is happening, just want to know what evidence someone like you (a skeptic) would need to be convinced.
 
Not to beat a dead horse, and not arguing any point. I am curious what it would take to convince you that it is happening. Again, not arguing whether or not it is happening, just want to know what evidence someone like you (a skeptic) would need to be convinced.

Climate is changing. I'm not arguing that. It's always changed.

Is Man responsible? That is unknown in the macro sense. I agree we all have a responsibility to not pollute, etc etc. I just don't think that the statistical models we have prove anything. And to act upon uncertainty is silly.

Of course another idea is that if we are currently warming is that necessarily bad? There's a lot of frozen tundra in the Northern hemispheres that could be turned into productive land if the growing seasons were longer, thus alleviating world hunger. In the 1200s Scotland was producing wine and crops were growing in Greenland. And the technology to deal with this in a positive way is more prevalent in the Northern hemisphere. :x
 
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Where did I get pissed off and not calmly engage with information? I'm confused how I screwed it all up? I just went back and looked at all of my posts in this thread and am completely confused by your statement.

Don't get the in way of his generalization.
 
You don't have to look at statistical data to see that humanity has an affect on the environment. It is in our interest to do what we can to keep the planet hospitable to us and the ecosystem that we need to survive.

I am fairly surprised that there has not been a massive die off due to bacterial infection in recent times because we seem more vulnerable due to human expansion, global interconnectivity, and mis/overuse of antibiotics.

Islands of trash are forming in the oceans, and our water supply has detectable and increasing levels of prescription drugs and byproducts of them that are not captured in water treatment plants (that I'm aware of).

I think humanity is the biggest threat to itself as well as the ecosystem it inhabits. If not by unintended consequences of growth and modern lifestyles, then by our desire to kill groups of people that we consider others. Like I already said, it is in our best interest to at least attempt to mitigate those risks. Far easier said than done however.
 
Climate is changing. I'm not arguing that. It's always changed.

Is Man responsible? That is unknown in the macro sense. I agree we all have a responsibility to not pollute, etc etc. I just don't think that the statistical models we have prove anything. And to act upon uncertainty is silly.

Of course another idea is that if we are currently warming is that necessarily bad? There's a lot of frozen tundra in the Northern hemispheres that could be turned into productive land if the growing seasons were longer, thus alleviating world hunger. In the 1200s Scotland was producing wine and crops were growing in Greenland. And the technology to deal with this in a positive way is more prevalent in the Northern hemisphere. :x

Fair enough. I disagree with your frozen tundra idea though.
 
Much of that frozen tundra lays stop methane clathrate. Defrosting spells disaster.
 
Much of that frozen tundra lays stop methane clathrate. Defrosting spells disaster.

The worst ones will be in the ocean.

@lou: methane clathrates are basically giant frozen Methane bubbles. This can be caused because of intense pressure/ cold. There are some worries that the permafrost melting will release a bunch of these "bubbles" (what thumper is talking about) and there is also worries that the ocean has a huge source of them that is becoming unstable.
 
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