A country would likely never use nukes unless they felt there was a substantial existential risk to not using them. From a foreign policy mag article I read awhile ago:
- With a full complement of US weaponry, Ukraine could likely retake Crimea and seize Russian territory adjacent to their borders
- The Putin regime would lose all credibility and likely face a coup d'état if that were to happen
- The regime, facing the prospect of decapitation, would be inclined to use all tools at their disposal to save themselves from this military outcome, including use of nukes
