A Lesson in HOG Economics

[aminalmutha]

If being a bigger corporation is such an unfair advantage, to the point that you dont even want the really big corporations mentioned in the same debate as harley davidson, then why is KTM killing harley in sales growth?Because they're selling boat loads of smaller vehicles to demanding markets.

They have a long way to grow. And Triumph sounds to be having trouble now.

I know the throngs of BARF nerds have a major boner about cheering on the demise of HD, but it speaks to the health of motorcycling as a whole, not as bare bones necessary transportation but as a hobby and sport.

Queue the freakout in 3...2...

 

[Bumpits]

Well Harley is demising. If you aren't growing you're dying. It just doesn't seem like Harley is because they're taking the whole motorcycle domestic market with them. Thirty years of perpetuating shit stereotypes in their marketing and a reliance on predatory lending to push more and more expensive bikes on people who can't afford them has lead to a post-recession US ostracizing motorcycles. Honda took a while after the recession to recognize the need but eventually came out with the CBR250R in 2011 and the grom in 2014. Harley was too worried about their bad boy reputation to remember that they're trying to sell transportation.

I'm unclear on triumph. 400 employee layoff might seem significant but we're amid covid times and we're seeing rapid job recovery when it's over. They also put a lot of eggs into the Moto2 basket and this season has been trashed. This year has been a writeoff for most businesses. I dont think it means much. Triumph still has a much smarter team than harley davidson. That Speed Twin is a stunner from looks to specs to chassis to fit and finish. Harley Davidson hasnt iterated on a product in any meaningful way in a very long time. Harley Davidson has more in common with Panerai than Triumph.

 

[Jalopyshoppe]

FWIW, my next bike will be a Triumph. The new Scrambler 1200XE has my name all over it. I've never bought a brand new motorcycle before, and only came close in 2010 when I was looking at a blowout Buell.
The Scrambler certainly plays to the heritage side of Triumph, and really can be seen as a similar angle to HD's strategy.in that case, it's obviously somewhat effective. Triumph made a wise decision by additionally expanding into ADV and Sport bikes. They nailed a price point and performance/quality benchmark that allowed them to grow.
I think the multi-facited approach is what has kept Triumph relevant while HD's one trick pony stance will be the death of them.

 

[Snaggy]

Why target the bottom? HD isn't a massive-scale scooter manufacturer.

The only actual comparable brands to HD are Triumph and KTM. They only make motorcycles, they aren't part of a larger conglomerate. HD sales are more than both those companies combined.

But hipster doofus in the OP video sure can armchair-CEO like a mothafucka.

Brand loyalty, getting a kid on a Harley instead of another brand, which he may never switch from. Sell more leather beer holders and t-shirts, more showroom traffic, get to know the dealer, hopefully not parts and service. How many Moto manufacturers don’t have an entry level bike? Even Ducati, BMW, most makers have a cheaper bike, almost all except the customs and some crazy sexy stuff like MV Augusta and Benelli.

Triumph has an $11,000 bike, KTM has a $5,000 street bike, a dirt line and a racing program to get young people addicted. Harley has a $7,000 bike, but I don’t think I’m the only guy who has seen a Hog rider turn up his nose at the Sportster when it’s mentioned. Not all, but more than a few.

I think the Sporster sells pretty well overseas, which is well over a third of their total sales.

Harley didn’t go out of their way to sell a kid his first bike.

 

[Kornholio]

They did offer (maybe still do???) a "trade-up" program at one point recently where if you purchased a Sportster, you could "trade-up" to a "full-size" Harley in a year or so and they would fully pay off the trade so you'd have zero chance for negative equity. I figured some folks would've taken advantage of that.

 

[NoobCorpse]

They have a long way to grow. And Triumph sounds to be having trouble now.

I know the throngs of BARF nerds have a major boner about cheering on the demise of HD, but it speaks to the health of motorcycling as a whole, not as bare bones necessary transportation but as a hobby and sport.

Queue the freakout in 3...2...

"A long way to grow" - not really, I'd say KTM has a shorter climb than a lot of other "major" motorcycle manufacturers.

Also, you and a lot of other folks seem to go back to this idea that everyone has a major boner about cheering for the demise of HD, and I can only speak for myself but I'm not cheering the demise of, I'm pissed off at their continual laurel resting and "America is the greatest country in the world" attitude towards their products - which is really their only product: the attitude and branding.

"fucking jap crap" is now replaced with "fucking vietnam crap" or "fucking india crap" and that attitude persists that somehow Harley is american-built and therefore awesome.
They're not awesome, they build motorcycles that cling to an outdated design and praise the heritage and classic nature of their history, instead of playing in spaces where other manufacturers have adapted and thrived.

Adventure motorcycling has been a thing now for what, 20 years? When did Ewan and Charley do that starbucks run? If harley hadn't had their heads up their own asses for years and built only one style of bike, they could have thrown their hat into that ring years ago and been ahead of the curve.
They could have leaned harder into Buell and not wasted the talent and design they were heading towards.

Yeah they're pivoting but come on - did anybody else injure themselves eyerolling hard when they officially revealed their ADV bike? It's a lifted cruiser. Good work guys, let's order the champagne.

Yeah the health of the industry is in decline and that's bad, but part of it is Harley clinging steadfastly to their heritage and pandering to their fan base and fighting for relevance, which seems tonedeaf and idiotic.
Their fan base isn't going to buy an electric bike, scooter, or 'sporty' bike.
Other motorcyclists will pick apart how "Harley" their non-harley bike is and not buy it.

Honda and a lot of other manufacturers have successfully diversified their line to include every aspect of motorcycling, and Harley just now recently jumped off the heritage boat and is branching out. They've had plenty of help and funding and bailouts and guidance and still didn't follow market trends, even after multiple CEO switchouts.
So where does the fault lie - the board? Who is continually fucking things up over there?
Also, FWIW, the harley brand is obviously still revered in Europe, India, and a lot of other places - it's huge in the Philippines. So yeah, why weren't they targeting bikes for those markets years ago (like when BMW, KTM, and other moto mfgrs did)?



TL;DR - I am not cheering for them to die off, I think they're badly mismanaged and haven't been a great American motorcycle company representative of the diverse types of motorcycles that Americans now enjoy more than large loud heavy cruisers. So what's to be done about it? American capitalism dictates that if you're not doing well in business, you die because you can't keep up with your competition. Grow, innovate, streamline, and adapt to build for the market - or, do the socialist thing and go crying to the government for help - how very unAmerican

 

[SFMCjohn]

another blind-man view of the elephant:

Charlie who?

Mr Haley and H-D attracting youth riders since 1976:

[YOUTUBE]fGML9ILiSeY[/YOUTUBE]

 

[NoobCorpse]

Mr Haley and H-D attracting youth riders since 1976:

I believe it was either Mother Teresa or Eleanor Roosevelt who sang in the 90s "What have you done for me lately".



My bad, Janet Jackson!


Also thx for proving my point about being stuck in the past.

 

[Caddywumpus]

I rolled through Livermore hd and their floor was pretty thin.

 

[SFMCjohn]

I believe it was either Mother Teresa or Eleanor Roosevelt who sang in the 90s "What have you done for me lately".



My bad, Janet Jackson!


Also thx for proving my point about being stuck in the past.

you're in the right of it, I'm sure ... like to think I'm always quick to own being stuck in the past.

just didn't want folks to think H-D hadn't been paying attention over the years, or that there isn't another point of view ...

in any event, looking forward to Mr. McGregor and Mr. Boorman's H-D e-bike feature ... see if they can do for H-D what they did for BMW ...
maybe too much to hope for for H-D? could they be that lucky ...?

 

[NoobCorpse]

you're in the right of it, I'm sure ... like to think I'm always quick to own being stuck in the past.

just didn't want folks to think H-D hadn't been paying attention over the years ...

in any event, looking forward to Mr. McGregor and Mr. Boorman's e-bike feature ... see if they can do for H-D what they did for BMW ... maybe too much to hope for for H-D?

That's kinda what's been frustrating - in the 70s-80s, to the casual rider / nonrider, a "motorcycle" was a harley davidson. H-Ds used to race, scramble, etc. As riding changed and motorcycles became "sportbikes" harley stayed in their lane and the 90s/00s saw many trends appear that stayed - the sport tourer, the luxury tourer, the ADV, the sportbike, the streetfighter. IMHO H-D could have out-Ducati'd Ducati and had a Monster-type bike well in advance. They kinda leaned into their image / lifestyle branding and while they were on to something with Buell to be a co-brand to fill those gaps, it was mismanaged and not looked upon well by the H-D community.
I've read countless stories about Buell owners getting the shaft from their dealers - so much so, that I'd be interested to hear if anybody got good support / service / sale for their Buell from a H-D dealer.
I'm glad they're adapting but they're 10 years too late and they've sold what they know to their core audience for so long, can H-D be anything but "H-D" at this point?


That said, if they make it through this, the kids being born today will go nuts for all things harley 30 years from now.

 

[Caddywumpus]

As a 2x buell owner I never got any service of repute from a dealership

 

[mrmarklin]

I rolled through Livermore hd and their floor was pretty thin.

I was there Saturday and they had a lot of unsold motorcycles. They must have done a great business in 24hrs.

They even had a CVO. Was it sold too?????

 

[Caddywumpus]

Compared to their normal flooring with basically no space between the bikes to how much less is in there than normal I'd say they are doing ok

 

[mrmarklin]

That's kinda what's been frustrating - in the 70s-80s, to the casual rider / nonrider, a "motorcycle" was a harley davidson. H-Ds used to race, scramble, etc. As riding changed and motorcycles became "sportbikes" harley stayed in their lane and the 90s/00s saw many trends appear that stayed - the sport tourer, the luxury tourer, the ADV, the sportbike, the streetfighter. IMHO H-D could have out-Ducati'd Ducati and had a Monster-type bike well in advance. They kinda leaned into their image / lifestyle branding and while they were on to something with Buell to be a co-brand to fill those gaps, it was mismanaged and not looked upon well by the H-D community.
I've read countless stories about Buell owners getting the shaft from their dealers - so much so, that I'd be interested to hear if anybody got good support / service / sale for their Buell from a H-D dealer.
I'm glad they're adapting but they're 10 years too late and they've sold what they know to their core audience for so long, can H-D be anything but "H-D" at this point?


That said, if they make it through this, the kids being born today will go nuts for all things harley 30 years from now.

I take issue with this. Here in CA, and I grew up riding in 70s and 80s, Harley was not on my radar or those of my friends. I rode Hondas then, and we even made fun of slow Harley Davidsons. I had a GL1000 and a V65 Sabre in the time frame you allude to. Way "better" than Harleys, as least in my opinion. Of course I was not watching biker movies, either.
In general, the regular magazines did not review Harleys as they were not considered competitive with the mainstream bikes such as the sport tourers or sporty bikes of the times.
In the mid 70s, Cycle ran an article called Eight for the Open Road, comparing eight big motorcycles for the then emerging touring market. Included among others, was a Honda GL1000 and a Harley Electra-Glide. Of all the bikes the Honda came in first or second, I don't remember which, but Harley came in dead last.
With the evolution motor in the eighties, Harley started to be competitive, but not in the way one would think. It stayed with its cruiser formula and gradually built up until the 90s when there was a wait list to buy a Harley motorcycle. The bike mags finally had to take notice because the market share of big bikes was being dominated by Harley. They still weren't as "good" as their Japanese or German competition, so the editors had to look at the real reasons people would buy inferior bikes. It wasn't top speed, 1/4 mile speed or decent handling because Harleys failed in all the normal performance categories. It came down, ultimately, to the "cool" factor. There was really nothing else to point to.

Say what you will, Harleys still have the Cool factor and are expensive, so you can add a Snob factor as well. Despite what some have maintained, Harleys do fairly well in the tech category as well. They've kept up. They only LOOK like outdated machines, but they're not. No they still do not handle that well or do 1/4 miles very fast. But they're well built machines. They maintain value better than most, and also market share. They are doing something right...…..

 

[mrmarklin]

Compared to their normal flooring with basically no space between the bikes to how much less is in there than normal I'd say they are doing ok

I've ben there several times in the last year or so. I really don't know what you're talking about.

 

[VicTim]

Well Harley has just been removed from the S&P 500.
They are now on the midcap 400. Downgraded for sure.

 

[Hank Wong]

Quote "Say what you will, Harleys still have the Cool factor and are expensive, so you can add a Snob factor as well. Despite what some have maintained, Harleys do fairly well in the tech category as well. They've kept up. They only LOOK like outdated machines, but they're not. No they still do not handle that well or do 1/4 miles very fast. But they're well built machines. They maintain value better than most, and also market share. They are doing something right...…..[/QUOTE]

I disagree with everything you said in the paragraph above with the exception that "they (HD) maintain value better than most." The reason HD maintains its value is only because of the great fool theory.

 

[ob1ventura]

I rolled through Livermore hd and their floor was pretty thin.

I was there picking up a fuel line a few weeks back and it appeared well stocked. They have a lot of floor space and most of it was covered. Even though it was mid week and the virus had some staying home I had to wait in line behind other customers at the counter. Seemed healthy to me.

Also visited Scuderia and CalMoto. Even though their floor space was smaller there appeared to be a lot more vacant real estate.

 

[ob1ventura]

Quote "Say what you will, Harleys still have the Cool factor and are expensive, so you can add a Snob factor as well. Despite what some have maintained, Harleys do fairly well in the tech category as well. They've kept up. They only LOOK like outdated machines, but they're not. No they still do not handle that well or do 1/4 miles very fast. But they're well built machines. They maintain value better than most, and also market share. They are doing something right...…..

I disagree with everything you said in the paragraph above with the exception that "they (HD) maintain value better than most." The reason HD maintains its value is only because of the great fool theory.[/QUOTE]

Good point. BMW has a lock on the snob factor.