A Lesson in HOG Economics

[redtail]

I disagree with everything you said in the paragraph above with the exception...

Good point. BMW has a lock on the snob factor.

Agree with both!

When I think of snob, BMW does come to mind, even though I owned one that I commuted on for years.

 

[cheez]

I disagree with everything you said in the paragraph above with the exception that "they (HD) maintain value better than most." The reason HD maintains its value is only because of the great fool theory.

Good point. BMW has a lock on the snob factor.

Try selling a used Harley with a 103ci motor right now. I just let my Road King go for about 25% less than I expected it to fetch, after waiting 2 years for any serious interest at my asking price. (And it wasn't overpriced.)

 

[DataDan]

Try selling a used Harley with a 103ci motor right now. I just let my Road King go for about 25% less than I expected it to fetch, after waiting 2 years for any serious interest at my asking price. (And it wasn't overpriced.)

I can't think of a better definition of "overpriced" than "no interest at asking price".

 

[SFMCjohn]

thought this was brilliant ... Mr. Buell gives us some insight into AMA Hall of Fame member and legendary H-D CEO, Mr. Beals:

[YOUTUBE]Mr61X7k79aI[/YOUTUBE]
Harley-Davidson's Great Turnaround & The Death of Project Nova

 

[NoobCorpse]

Try selling a used Harley with a 103ci motor right now. I just let my Road King go for about 25% less than I expected it to fetch, after waiting 2 years for any serious interest at my asking price. (And it wasn't overpriced.)

That's an interesting data point, and I'm wondering if it's the economy, the moto market decline in general, or a foreshadow of the secondary market feeling the effects of harley sales trending downward?
Great condition desirable Harley models that had a build wait time had great resale value for that very reason, so I'm inclined to agree you probably weren't overpriced for as recently as 3-4 years ago - but maybe overpriced for current economic indicators?
I'd like to see a larger data set about this kind of thing over time, but I'm guessing now during covid, disposable income might be drying up.

 

[cheez]

That's an interesting data point, and I'm wondering if it's the economy, the moto market decline in general, or a foreshadow of the secondary market feeling the effects of harley sales trending downward?
Great condition desirable Harley models that had a build wait time had great resale value for that very reason, so I'm inclined to agree you probably weren't overpriced for as recently as 3-4 years ago - but maybe overpriced for current economic indicators?
I'd like to see a larger data set about this kind of thing over time, but I'm guessing now during covid, disposable income might be drying up.

It's the 107/114 motor that I think is creating the lull in 103ci Harley sales. I believe pretty strongly that they realized they couldn't attract new riders and so had to cannibalize their existing userbase, hence the M8 motor with the higher displacement to get the dedicated to sell their 103ci off and buy new.

So yeah, for current market state, probably overpriced.

 

[DataDan]

Relevant to this thread, here's an excerpt from an ADVRider interview of Eric Buell:

[youtube]Mr61X7k79aI[/youtube]

 

[Hank Wong]

Insightful!

Very insightful video to hear it straight from an insider regarding Bond the businessman's perspective, vs. Buell the engineer's perspective. Eric hit the nail when he talks about how Bond refers HD motorcycles as Rolex watches. Rolex vs. Timex is a good analogy for this thread. Let's make it Casio since Timex is an American brand. The watch analogy is particularly good for our motorcycle discussion because it reflects the sign of the time (yes pun intended). People don't need watches anymore because everyone has a cellphone that tells time. Casio has evolved beyond digital watches. Does Casio even sell watches anymore? I know Timex still sells watches. I for one haven't worn a watch in years.

 

[mrmarklin]

Very insightful video to hear it straight from an insider regarding Bond the businessman's perspective, vs. Buell the engineer's perspective. Eric hit the nail when he talks about how Bond refers HD motorcycles as Rolex watches. Rolex vs. Timex is a good analogy for this thread. Let's make it Casio since Timex is an American brand. The watch analogy is particularly good for our motorcycle discussion because it reflects the sign of the time (yes pun intended). People don't need watches anymore because everyone has a cellphone that tells time. Casio has evolved beyond digital watches. Does Casio even sell watches anymore? I know Timex still sells watches. I for one haven't worn a watch in years.

Casio still sells watches. G Shock are wildly popular models.

In spite of the fact that everyone has a cell phone, watches are very much still a thing.

Harleys are too, despite I own two cars to transport me. One is a very sporty Audi RS5. Faster than most motorcycles. Top speed ca 180 mph.

 

[Kornholio]

Say what you will, Harleys still have the Cool factor and are expensive, so you can add a Snob factor as well. Despite what some have maintained, Harleys do fairly well in the tech category as well. They've kept up. They only LOOK like outdated machines, but they're not. No they still do not handle that well or do 1/4 miles very fast. But they're well built machines. They maintain value better than most, and also market share. They are doing something right...…..

It's funny...while reading this last paragraph of your post, all I could hear was the same type of people that are the Tacoma Apologists. In a world where literally every single manufacturer has switched to full disc brakes on their pickups, Toyota still insists on using rear drum brakes on every single Tacoma, regardless of price. They're also down on power against literally every single other manufacturer's mid-size truck. But again, I apparently just don't get it according to them...

"But, that resale value, bro! Drum brakes are better for off-roading, bro! You just don't understand! Tacomas dominate the market, bro!"

Well, sure they do...when you're the only real player on the market...you dominate it. HD is literally no different. And, just like Tacomas are, HD's marketshare is rapidly shrinking away.

 

[LachlanD]

Just waiting for the harley ADV VS GS1200 shootout

 

[NoobCorpse]

Just waiting for the harley ADV VS GS1200 shootout

I could probably write that article right now:

"H-D performance is a bit behind the GS"

"The H-D cruises on-road and eats up miles"

"BMW continues its dominant streak of making the GS the best-in-class touring adventure bike"

"H-Ds first foray into ADV riding opens up new adventures for the H-D faithful"

"At the end of the day, H-D enthusiasts will buy the ADV, everyone else will buy the GS"***


let's revisit this a year or two from now when these articles start appearing!



*** truth be told I don't think H-D enthusiasts will be interested in the ADV, and ADV enthusiasts aren't looking at H-D being a player in that segment. Also, aren't H-Ds super flashy / chrome and scratch and break a lot of stuff when dropped?

 

[mrmarklin]

It's funny...while reading this last paragraph of your post, all I could hear was the same type of people that are the Tacoma Apologists. In a world where literally every single manufacturer has switched to full disc brakes on their pickups, Toyota still insists on using rear drum brakes on every single Tacoma, regardless of price. They're also down on power against literally every single other manufacturer's mid-size truck. But again, I apparently just don't get it according to them...

"But, that resale value, bro! Drum brakes are better for off-roading, bro! You just don't understand! Tacomas dominate the market, bro!"

Well, sure they do...when you're the only real player on the market...you dominate it. HD is literally no different. And, just like Tacomas are, HD's marketshare is rapidly shrinking away.

HD hasn't had drum brakes in decades...………...

 

[mrmarklin]

*** truth be told I don't think H-D enthusiasts will be interested in the ADV, and ADV enthusiasts aren't looking at H-D being a player in that segment. Also, aren't H-Ds super flashy / chrome and scratch and break a lot of stuff when dropped?

HD guys don't care about ADV biking, that's for sure.

The ADV will be Harley's attempt to enter that market. Which is new for them. I have previously stated that unless Harley really knocks it out of the park with a great motorcycle, it will fail. That market appears to be still growing but there are a lot of great motorcycles in ADV already.

 

[SFMCjohn]

"H-Ds first foray into ADV riding opens up new adventures for the H-D faithful"

"At the end of the day, H-D enthusiasts will buy the ADV, everyone else will buy the GS"***


let's revisit this a year or two from now when these articles start appearing!

*** truth be told I don't think H-D enthusiasts will be interested in the ADV, and ADV enthusiasts aren't looking at H-D being a player in that segment. Also, aren't H-Ds super flashy / chrome and scratch and break a lot of stuff when dropped?

I’m always suprised at how many Harley guys I know who also own a Kawasaki KLR ...

think owning both a Harley and a dual-sport bike simply has more to do with what part of the country you live in, where there may be a lot of fire roads, etc.

ime, anyway ... in fact, at one period of time in the recent past, on any Thursday night in front of our clubhouse in San Francisco, there’d be more KLRs parked on the curb than H-D, BMW or Ducatis ...

 

[cheez]

*looks at signature*

*looks at collection of Harley t-shirts and paraphernalia*

*looks at lifetime idolization of Harley bikes and culture*

*looks at DR650 and SVed*

Generalizations suck, generally speaking.

 

[chickenfried]

whoosh...

HD hasn't had drum brakes in decades...………...

 

[Caddywumpus]

I’m always suprised at how many Harley guys I know who also own a Kawasaki KLR ...

think owning both a Harley and a dual-sport bike simply has more to do with what part of the country you live in, where there may be a lot of fire roads, etc.

ime, anyway ... in fact, at one period of time in the recent past, on any Thursday night in front of our clubhouse in San Francisco, there’d be more KLRs parked on the curb than H-D, BMW or Ducatis ...

Because you city folk can't afford anything but klrs

 

[SFMCjohn]

Because you city folk can't afford anything but klrs

I admit it ...

what I look like bragging about my motorcycles:

 

[Caddywumpus]

John it's been too long. I should come up and visit