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Stock Thread 2018

Nobody wants to take a hit.

You know yourself, that's a good thing. There's nothing wrong with the asset allocation you posted and they're not gouging you on the fees. Having that diversification will serve you well.

This thread is a good if you want to know what others are investing in, but unless any barfer is a certified financial planner, you shouldn't take any of it as advice to heart. You should consult a financial adviser and pay for his/her time to give you objective professional advice of your portfolio based on your goals and tolerance for risk.

Absolutely, hearing others opinions/advice gives me some thought and helps me learn this stuff as i start to do research. Win win for me. Learn new stuff. I wouldnt go make a rush decision based on any advice here.

I almost wish i hadnt read this thread. I havnt payed attention to my investments in years and theyve continually grown, now that i do i noticed it lost $4,000+ overnight. May not be alot for alot of you but hell that could be depresssing if youre one to follow this stuff and manage it everyday.
 
Those numbers aren't right. Fund fees usually range from 0.1% to 1.2%. The correct word for these fees is "expense ratio" or "management expenses"

Those are the exact numbers i found for my core funds under "fees" and "gross expense ratio". Under "shareholder fees" it states "no additional fees apply". Is there something i'm missing?
 
Absolutely, hearing others opinions/advice gives me some thought and helps me learn this stuff as i start to do research. Win win for me. Learn new stuff. I wouldnt go make a rush decision based on any advice here.

I almost wish i hadnt read this thread. I havnt payed attention to my investments in years and theyve continually grown, now that i do i noticed it lost $4,000+ overnight. May not be alot for alot of you but hell that could be depresssing if youre one to follow this stuff and manage it everyday.

You learned the difference between investing and gambling so good on you. The reports of daily stocks are a self-fullfiling prophecy at times, and probably designed to be so.

Buffet says this or that and prices go one way or another. A Tweet her and there and the individual bears the brunt of the results.

One person has long term gains or losses of X percent. So what, what does that do for you? Little if anything.

Going to sleep and having to worry about it is worth more than some percentage comparison that in the end means diddly squat.

More than one person went from long term gains to messing around gambling on daily prices only to find out their gains erroded into losses when it really mattered.
 
When the market is souring people can find all sorts of articles to support it going higher.
When its crashing there's as many articles to prove its going even lower still.
Smarter investors at the top of the food chain have gotten it wrong each time.
What chance do we lowly barfers have of proving our gut feelings.
 
Those are the exact numbers i found for my core funds under "fees" and "gross expense ratio". Under "shareholder fees" it states "no additional fees apply". Is there something i'm missing?

They don't make sense.

.07, .013, .052, .052, .062, .0074

If you simply put a % sign after them, they're way too low.

If you multiply them by 100, they're way too high except for the last one (7%, 1.3%, 5.2%, 5.2%, 6.2%, 0.74%)
 
When the market is souring people can find all sorts of articles to support it going higher.
When its crashing there's as many articles to prove its going even lower still.
Smarter investors at the top of the food chain have gotten it wrong each time.
What chance do we lowly barfers have of proving our gut feelings.

everyone's probably thinking the same thing. i'll buy "market correction" and not read too much into one day of activity.

i'm going to take a wait n see approach especially in 2018. tax cuts for corporations and individuals taking into effect. all companies should be compliant in employee tax deduction changes by mid february. more money in the pockets of consumers, the economy should benefit from that.
 
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To add a little more...

- It's been said there's on the order of 15 trillion of new QE money sloshing around the globe since the last crisis. Fuel for the asset bubbles.

- Balance sheet expansion and stock market correlate nicely.

- The G4 central banks have stated their intention to do "quantitative tightening". Balance sheets are expected to peak in Q1 this year, if they go through with this.

- Low volatility leading up to this will cause exaggerated response to perturbations just due to the dynamics of the derivatives that take part in fund portfolios.

** Long term trends: dollar weakness, commodity sector slowly accelerating toward considerable strength

Dollar Downward Pressure:
- Domestic: political turmoil, elections, impeachment, etc
- International: Israeli tail wagging the usual dogs of war
- De-dollarization: yuan oil contracts, other non-dollar systems of international settlement
- Administration, Fed want weaker dollar

US debt and other liabilities:
- Utterly unpayable in real terms. Must either inflate or default outright. The historically popular choice is, not surprisingly, inflation.


- Housing in the US bubble cities is unaffordable. That alone is enough for a reversion to the mean.

- No one wants US debt at these yields. If the Fed doesn't buy, it will get ugly.

- Lots of short term US debt out there, subject to frequent rollover. Current service cost, at the historically low yields, is something like 420-430 billion annually. What will happen at a yield of 5% and higher? How much do we take in, in taxes? This thing is a ticking bomb.

All in all, there are many large force vectors in play, pulling in a variety of directions.

- It is clear that US debt and the dollar are in big trouble long term.
- It is clear that our standard of living will erode.

- I worry about a pan-asset bubble implosion in the short term, unless the Fed continues to prop up the bond market strongly. This surely is a tempting thing politically vs Trump, and anyhow the criminal banking cartel thrives on crisis they front-run and buy up at the bottom.

- Long term, dollar devaluation would be stock positive. Increased energy prices, not so much. Money flowing out of bonds and into stocks, certainly so. Commodies will strengthen considerably. Real estate will have to revert. It's ridiculous, and many factors are pushing yields up.

Considerable difficulty lies in the gross distortion caused by the years of QE. When fundamentals take a back seat to reserve currency printing, the printers are in control, at least in the short term. I have laid out many considerations, but the G4 central banks are still in control of the near term dynamics.

I expect to buy a lot of puts this year, on REITs and the broader stock market. And to look out for a good entry point to commodities stocks. If we do have bubble implosion across all asset classes, literally everything will sell off, commodities as well. In that case, cash + puts and try to get in near the new bottom.

Other, more tangible insurance free of counterparty risk is a separate matter. Now is a fine time to get some.
 
my observation is, both this stock thread and the zero credit thread are morphing into similar predictions of doomsday scenarios. pessimism is the best thing to post at the moment because it feeds into peoples anxieties already. thank you very much for that.

no discussion with the few doomsayers is the best prescription
 
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You learned the difference between investing and gambling so good on you. The reports of daily stocks are a self-fullfiling prophecy at times, and probably designed to be so.

Buffet says this or that and prices go one way or another. A Tweet her and there and the individual bears the brunt of the results.

One person has long term gains or losses of X percent. So what, what does that do for you? Little if anything.

Going to sleep and having to worry about it is worth more than some percentage comparison that in the end means diddly squat.

More than one person went from long term gains to messing around gambling on daily prices only to find out their gains erroded into losses when it really mattered.

:thumbup
 
They don't make sense.

.07, .013, .052, .052, .062, .0074

If you simply put a % sign after them, they're way too low.

If you multiply them by 100, they're way too high except for the last one (7%, 1.3%, 5.2%, 5.2%, 6.2%, 0.74%)

Those are the exact numbers shown. I agree now after looking deeper into the statements, they dont make sense. Thanks for pointing that out. I will call them.
 
It's so wrong for the current population that have to get ideas on how to save $$$$ from the goddamn internet.

Wtf is wrong with your parents.
 
It's so wrong for the current population that have to get ideas on how to save $$$$ from the goddamn internet.

Wtf is wrong with your parents.

Not everyone comes from a cherry household, many don’t grow up with both parents or even one.
 
Those numbers aren't right. Fund fees usually range from 0.1% to 1.2%. The correct word for these fees is "expense ratio" or "management expenses"

After much digging ive found this. Those are the actual fund fees i posted.

The "management" fees are .45% per year deducted quarterly. Next year, upon a certain amount of $ in the account, will go down to .30% per year.

To be honest over the next 20+ years thats alot of money. I think i can do the same or better without them.
 
After much digging ive found this. Those are the actual fund fees i posted.

The "management" fees are .45% per year deducted quarterly. Next year, upon a certain amount of $ in the account, will go down to .30% per year.

To be honest over the next 20+ years thats alot of money. I think i can do the same or better without them.

dam right!
 
The author is a long-time, well respected contributor to Bogleheads.org.

Funny!

I just came across a couple threads on there while researching this unbiased financial advisor company my employer has as an service. :laughing
 
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