To add a little more...
- It's been said there's on the order of 15 trillion of new QE money sloshing around the globe since the last crisis. Fuel for the asset bubbles.
- Balance sheet expansion and stock market correlate nicely.
- The G4 central banks have stated their intention to do "quantitative tightening". Balance sheets are expected to peak in Q1 this year, if they go through with this.
- Low volatility leading up to this will cause exaggerated response to perturbations just due to the dynamics of the derivatives that take part in fund portfolios.
** Long term trends: dollar weakness, commodity sector slowly accelerating toward considerable strength
Dollar Downward Pressure:
- Domestic: political turmoil, elections, impeachment, etc
- International: Israeli tail wagging the usual dogs of war
- De-dollarization: yuan oil contracts, other non-dollar systems of international settlement
- Administration, Fed want weaker dollar
US debt and other liabilities:
- Utterly unpayable in real terms. Must either inflate or default outright. The historically popular choice is, not surprisingly, inflation.
- Housing in the US bubble cities is unaffordable. That alone is enough for a reversion to the mean.
- No one wants US debt at these yields. If the Fed doesn't buy, it will get ugly.
- Lots of short term US debt out there, subject to frequent rollover. Current service cost, at the historically low yields, is something like 420-430 billion annually. What will happen at a yield of 5% and higher? How much do we take in, in taxes? This thing is a ticking bomb.
All in all, there are many large force vectors in play, pulling in a variety of directions.
- It is clear that US debt and the dollar are in big trouble long term.
- It is clear that our standard of living will erode.
- I worry about a pan-asset bubble implosion in the short term, unless the Fed continues to prop up the bond market strongly. This surely is a tempting thing politically vs Trump, and anyhow the criminal banking cartel thrives on crisis they front-run and buy up at the bottom.
- Long term, dollar devaluation would be stock positive. Increased energy prices, not so much. Money flowing out of bonds and into stocks, certainly so. Commodies will strengthen considerably. Real estate will have to revert. It's ridiculous, and many factors are pushing yields up.
Considerable difficulty lies in the gross distortion caused by the years of QE. When fundamentals take a back seat to reserve currency printing, the printers are in control, at least in the short term. I have laid out many considerations, but the G4 central banks are still in control of the near term dynamics.
I expect to buy a lot of puts this year, on REITs and the broader stock market. And to look out for a good entry point to commodities stocks. If we do have bubble implosion across all asset classes, literally everything will sell off, commodities as well. In that case, cash + puts and try to get in near the new bottom.
Other, more tangible insurance free of counterparty risk is a separate matter. Now is a fine time to get some.