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Stock Thread 2018

Would someone with many years of experience chime in on this:

I have exited most of my positions recently and would like to move on to another endeavor of betting against student loans.

I am thinking of just shorting SLM and NAVI. Does anyone have any other method to shorting student loans?
 
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zanshin said:
My primary long position rallied back this morning and I got out with a 10% haircut from the recent peaks. That's it, no more longs except for day trades.

Short position (derivative) made over 160% today.

- All markets (except commodities) are artificially, horribly inflated. Without QE, they will all move toward fair value.
- G4 central banks have stated they are ending QE. If they are telling the truth, then being long any of this crap is asking to get kicked in the teeth.
- Eventually, yields will go up and the dollar will go down. This will destroy the BA real estate bubble in real terms, and most likely in nominal terms as well. If the current bloodbath does not abate, this may be happening sooner than later.

That all there is to it. Smoke the hopium and take your beating, or get on the winning side of the trade and enjoy several years of bull market unwinding in a short period of ultraviolence. (Short period.. eh, eh! The jokes write themselves)

My plan is to make some outrageous moves this year, a go for broke sort of a thing. This is a rare opportunity. I expect to either lose 50% of net worth in the process, or retire early. It is an opportunity to stop being a wage slave, and I'm taking it.
Click to expand...

Best of luck!!
 
Tomorrow will be interesting. Futures betting says it will dive even more.

But, someone is accepting every put and buying every sale. At some point in the curve they're gonna clean up.
 
rodr said:
Tomorrow will be interesting. Futures betting says it will dive even more.

But, someone is accepting every put and buying every sale. At some point in the curve they're gonna clean up.
Click to expand...


Although this crazy thing can turn on a dime, for now futures are looking bleak (for longs).

As nothing goes straight up or straight down, if there's another day of bloodletting, I will close the short and reassess.

What do you guys think about Nvidia? To what extent will the cratering of cryptos, and what I assume will be a corresponding plunge in GPU sales, hurt it? It's already blown off some froth from the top, but I wonder how much more delicious downside remains.
 
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People who try to time markets, buy stocks instead of companies lose their asses every time.

Some have a strategy...in predicting what happened yesterday. Some can tell you why it happened, after it happened.

And then there are the ones who having bought into something at $5 and a run to $100, see a drop of 5-10% and panic and run for the hills.

Buy quality and unless you are within 10 years of a grave, nothing that happens this week or next is going to make much difference unless you get emotional about it. Keep emotion out of it and its been proven over and over that long term you come out ahead with quality, steady accumulation when compabies go on sale. Then, when even double digit corrections hit, so what, that turns around into double and triple digit increases.

If you bought out of greed, yeah, its time to panic. If you bought through due diligence, patience and quality this is no big whoop.

Easy way to see who is really worried? Just look and see the people who can't sleep this week. They're the ones with their log-ons written on their hands and their eyes glues to a stock ticker. Do them a favor and ask them if they need a valium.
 
Just imho.

I didn't read it anywhere. Sometimes, if all you know is what someone else writes then all you'll ever know is what someone else wants you to know. What I write isn't excluded from that.
 
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With things going sideways, locked in the short (with a loss compared to yesterday's close, but not complaining). Sitting all in cash, watching the bond market flows.

Looking at the VIX and yield, thinking the safety play is overdone, and a rally is more likely if a nugget of good central banking / political news hits the wire.
 
zanshin said:
That all there is to it. Smoke the hopium and take your beating, or get on the winning side of the trade and enjoy several years of bull market unwinding in a short period of ultraviolence. (Short period.. eh, eh! The jokes write themselves)
Click to expand...

Which side is the winning side? It doesn't look that obvious to me.

zanshin said:
My plan is to make some outrageous moves this year, a go for broke sort of a thing. This is a rare opportunity. I expect to either lose 50% of net worth in the process, or retire early. It is an opportunity to stop being a wage slave, and I'm taking it.
Click to expand...

Simmer down and maybe try to stretch that over a 5 or 10 year plan.

The masses wanting to be rich overnight has given us the bubbles in the market and RE and bitcoin.
 
zanshin said:
My primary long position rallied back this morning and I got out with a 10% haircut from the recent peaks. That's it, no more longs except for day trades.

Short position (derivative) made over 160% today.

- All markets (except commodities) are artificially, horribly inflated. Without QE, they will all move toward fair value.
- G4 central banks have stated they are ending QE. If they are telling the truth, then being long any of this crap is asking to get kicked in the teeth.
- Eventually, yields will go up and the dollar will go down. This will destroy the BA real estate bubble in real terms, and most likely in nominal terms as well. If the current bloodbath does not abate, this may be happening sooner than later.

That all there is to it. Smoke the hopium and take your beating, or get on the winning side of the trade and enjoy several years of bull market unwinding in a short period of ultraviolence. (Short period.. eh, eh! The jokes write themselves)

My plan is to make some outrageous moves this year, a go for broke sort of a thing. This is a rare opportunity. I expect to either lose 50% of net worth in the process, or retire early. It is an opportunity to stop being a wage slave, and I'm taking it.
Click to expand...

And yet the stock market has driven the US to the position of the number one economic power in the world and kept it there for many decades.

I wouldn't bail out and bet against the monster too heavily. When you stand in front of a slowing steam roller, it only take being wrong by two feet to get flattened. :laughing
 
Jennifer I think so. There's a different measure called EBITDA which is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
 
^^ Was reading that Buffet and many other investors look at EBITDA with a grain of salt, some don't like it at all. They used the telecom bizz as an example. Constantly having to spend and improve lines/equipment to stay up with times. Their EBITDA is skewed.

What I don't understand is sooooo many companies have negative net income yet massive revenue. IPO about to list have negative net income, why/how is that a good thing? Means more $$ is reinvested in company?

IPSCO and TFI TAB Gida are IPOs I'm interested in.

IPSCO is a US seamless steel supplier BUT they are 100% owned by Russian TMK which worries me.

TFI TAB Gida are a massive restaurant owner in turkey/china, 1,800 stores and open 200 each year and with 12.5% growth in each.

Both are IPO'ing soon.
 
AwakeNAlive said:
afm, when public companies report earnings, they are reporting after tax net income right?
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When companies report earnings, they typically report net earnings total, per share, and by company division. They might also report gross earnings, costs and overhead, etc. So if Pfizer reports a 49 cent per share earning, that's typically net, after expenses.

If it is EBT or EBIT ( earnings before taxes or earnings before taxes and interest) it will usually say so.
 
rodr said:
Jennifer I think so. There's a different measure called EBITDA which is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Click to expand...


earnings before taxes, huh? well my ignorance led me to believe that lower corporate tax expense would make reported earnings higher immediately. that knocks my optimism down by a few notches then.

re: #455
capital expenditures do not show up on the income statement as expenses as a one time hit. the cost of assets are amortized over time (e.g., booked under depreciation expense)
 
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afm199 said:
When companies report earnings, they typically report net earnings total, per share, and by company division. They might also report gross earnings, costs and overhead, etc. So if Pfizer reports a 49 cent per share earning, that's typically net, after expenses.

If it is EBT or EBIT ( earnings before taxes or earnings before taxes and interest) it will usually say so.
Click to expand...


gotcha. thx!
 
AwakeNAlive said:
earnings before taxes, huh? well my ignorance led me to believe that lower corporate tax expense would make repoted earnings higher immediately. that knocks my optimism down by a few notches then.

capital expenditures do not show up on the income statement as expenses as one hit. the cost of assets are amortized over time
Click to expand...

Trump's new law is allowing companies to depreciate (including section 179) at a much faster rate than before. Some things may not be changing ( oil field depreciation).

But the truth is that every earnings report is a mine field that is published to display positive news in the best light and hide or not mention negative news. The ways to lie are incredibly sophisticated.
 
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