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Stock Thread 2018

redruM said:
If you had a good analyst friend who expressed dire concern over the same "makings of a perfect storm" which several less popular BARFers have iterated in this thread and elsewhere (for years) - would you just ignore and label your friend a "doom & gloomer"? or would you finally start considering alternate ways of perceiving the world around you.
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i am not sure what scenario you are trying to paint but i would very much like people to articulate the reasons for their concerns.


the doomsayers in this thread and in other threads fully articulated their views of the world. they take certain facts that really are true but put their own spin on it hoping that the audience will suspend their own belief systems and adopt theirs instead, because their views stir up fear and grab attention and are more superior, lol


i have not heard anyone use fundamental economic and financial market jargon describe the makings of the perfect storm (e.g., a severe market dip).
i do not intend to perceive the world differently anytime soon
 
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No one knows what the near future holds but for the past decade the doom and gloomers have been dead wrong. If the big crash is averted for another decade will they still claim to have been right with their 20 year warnings?
 
i don't know when the next crash will be, who really knows

all i know is when i encounter a doomsayer's post, the scenario is described in detail. my belief is that these posters either have had some tramatic experiences in their lives, want their 15 minutes of fame or just want to inject some fear into the atmosphere to get people to act emotionally.


the poster that spawned my latest post did not add anything of value to this thread because it did not offer the explanation of Why. that was the intent of my post last evening


billions of dollars were transferred out from equities last week, including within 401(k) accounts. it is ok to admit that some were decisions based on emotions. you're in charge of your own portfolio. do what allows you to sleep at night
 
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AwakeNAlive said:
all i know is when i encounter a doomsayer's post, the scenario is described in detail. my belief is that these posters either have had some tramatic experiences in their lives, want their 15 minutes of fame or just want to inject some fear into the atmosphere to get people to act emotionally.
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What I'm asking is - if you had a good friend that was a professional analyst, and they changed their tune one day, adopted a similar doomy economic worldview and gave you advice accordingly ... would you simply write your friend off per your quoted belief above?
 
Blankpage said:
No one knows what the near future holds but for the past decade the doom and gloomers have been dead wrong. If the big crash is averted for another decade will they still claim to have been right with their 20 year warnings?
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yes

and nobody will have listened :laughing
 
Reli said:
Commodities (especially gold) doing well after this morning's inflation announcement

My Fitbit is up 11% too, I only hold it in the hopes that someone will acquire them :laughing
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Everything seems to be up today. :dunno
 
redruM said:
What I'm asking is - if you had a good friend that was a professional analyst, and they changed their tune one day, adopted a similar doomy economic worldview and gave you advice accordingly ... would you simply write your friend off per your quoted belief above?
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i would not write him off as a friend. if he is the only one detailing out that scenario, well of course i would not treat my assets any differently


i think you are misunderstanding what i have been posting. by no means do i assume the barfer's analyst friend is a gloom n doomer. i was expecting more out of that post, i.e., what a professional analyst would say to analyze the status quo
 
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AwakeNAlive said:
i would not write him off as a friend. if he is the only one detailing out that scenario, well of course i would not treat my assets any differently
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ok, but you wouldn't automatically suggest that your [hypothetical] friend must have "had some tramatic experiences in his life", or that he is just looking for his "15 minutes of fame" or that he is just "trying to inject some fear into the atmosphere to get you to act emotionally" - right?

hopefully you understand my point.

holding pessimistic or cynical views =/= bad intentions or mental instability... whether it's someone you know and trust, or someone you don't know at all.
 
redruM said:
ok, but you wouldn't automatically suggest that your [hypothetical] friend must have "had some tramatic experiences in his life", or that he is just looking for his "15 minutes of fame" or that he is just "trying to inject some fear into the atmosphere to get you to act emotionally" - right?

hopefully you understand my point.

holding pessimistic or cynical views =/= bad intentions or mental instability... whether it's someone you know and trust, or someone you don't know at all.
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well why didn't you say that in the first place. i understand where you are coming from.

but you should know where i am coming from. i cannot be the only one who is bothered by incessant rants on these threads
 
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AwakeNAlive said:
well why didn't you say that in the first place. i understand where you are coming from.

but you should know where i am coming from. i cannot be the only one who is bothered by incessant rants on these threads
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You're definitely not the only one bothered or otherwise provoked by what you read - on BARF or anywhere else. It happens to everyone.

For instance, the incessant rants of blind optimism and support of/belief in official narrative that I read every day - on any topic - bothers me immensely. Not merely because it doesn't jibe with my [unpopular] worldview, but because I'm genuinely concerned that others will be adversely affected.

It's a circular argument, of course. Que sera sera.
 
Since the stats show that brokers/analyst/etc underperform the market on average I would probably ignore anything my analyst friend said. The odds are more in your favor ignoring him than listening to him.

Tons of people are playing the market at any time so it's inevitable that a few will time the drops and gains perfectly. Doesn't make them smart, just lucky.

It's possible that even someone like Warren Buffet is nothing but the result of statistical luck.
 
afm199 said:
Picked up some F and GE today. Both pretty beaten down.


(Edit, if the market doesn't crash and the world come to an end.)
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Good luck. I haven’t jumped into GE yet, but considering it for a couple weeks now.

My step son is a machinist for them and has like 80% of his retirement in their stock. Absolutely lost his ass the last year. Fortunately he’s young, has plenty of time to learn and recover.
 
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Cycle61 said:
Good luck. I haven’t jumped into GE yet, but considering it for a couple weeks now.

My step son is a machinist for them and has like 80% of his retirement in their stock. Absolutely lost his ass the last year. Fortunately he’s young, has plenty of time to learn and recover.
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Thanks, had an eye on them for quite a while, waiting to see how far the decline would go. I'm ok with this level and it's a nice dividend.
 
Might be a good buy, but there is a concern about what else SEC investigation will dig up....
 
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