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Stock Thread 2018

Blankpage said:
I suspect company share buyback had the biggest impact but 8000 points in 2 years is a bit frothy mo matter the driving force.
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Yes, to a degree, but the market cap DJI is 25,000. That's up about a third in two years. A big move, but also coming off the 2008 crash.
 
Reli said:
Of course no one knows, thus the "IMO" in my post

We'll see a true crash, it's just a matter of when. I just doubt it will happen until next year or the year after.


I'd call Trump's corporate tax cuts a strong fundamental reason. I don't agree with them, but common sense says they did fatten net profits. While increasing the federal deficit, of course.
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i agree with Reli because, 1) there is no recession predicted in the near future, and 2) the stock market has potential for more upward movement due to optimistic 3Q earnings reports. tech corps releasing their earnings today experienced a rise in their stock prices today. even Tesla had good news to share.


going forward, i think investors will look at revenue and earnings more closely/seriously. i don't mind that all of this volatility is labelled a market correction. even though i benefited immensely from the rise in my portfolio's market value since the presidential election, i can live with an adjustment in the downward direction.


i have a very conservative asset allocation. i know that i must invest in equities because if i don't, with no other source of income other than my job, inflation will eat into my savings. instead of going to an investment adviser for advice on where to invest, who i probably wouldn't listen to anyway, i have tinkered with how much exposure i can live with and sleep comfortably at night. yesterday, my portfolio balance fell to where it was at the beginning of July. not too bad.
 
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i hear that a global recession is quite possible in 2020. by near future, i meant by a few months, in regards to what Reli had commented about. it's all relative. everyone has their own personal beliefs. i will stick to my asset allocation through mid 2019 and reassess then

Reli said:
Won't crash further than this until after the holidays IMO
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The market will either go up or down from here. It could possibly go sideways but that would be a huge gamble. I say bet on one of the first two options. Odds are 50/50 and that beats your powerball chances any day of the week.
 
AwakeNAlive said:
i agree with Reli because, 1) there is no recession predicted in the near future,
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There are plenty of expert economists abound who are predicting a recession in the near future. The signs on the wall are numerous. You're not looking at all the walls.

AwakeNAlive said:
and 2) the stock market has potential for more upward movement due to optimistic 3Q earnings reports....i don't mind that all of this volatility is labelled a market correction.
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Many good arguments can be made that upward movements, from here, are the corrections; that down is the new & long overdue trend.

AwakeNAlive said:
even though i benefited immensely from the rise in my portfolio's market value since the presidential election, i can live with an adjustment in the downward direction.
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Respectfully, there are zero benefits to a rise in anyone's portfolio value unless and until they book profits by selling the asset(s) in said portfolio. Your time horizon is the single-most critical factor in determining just how well you can live with "an adjustment in the downward direction".

AwakeNAlive said:
i have a very conservative asset allocation. i know that i must invest in equities because if i don't, with no other source of income other than my job, inflation will eat into my savings.
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Most Americans must invest in equities because it's the only option given in the vast majority of employer-sponsored retirement plans.

Equities are not the best vehicle to preserving savings against inflation.
 
i think redruM found me, Jessie, parsing out my post like a shark attracted to blood poured into the ocean! :laughing

Cheers, everyone! :Port





redruM said:
Equities are not the best vehicle to preserving savings against inflation.
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What is?


redruM said:
There are plenty of expert economists abound who are predicting a recession in the near future. The signs on the wall are numerous. You're not looking at all the walls.
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I am interpreting the news, discussions on news-talk radio, newsletters that I subscribe to and listening to meetings held by senior economists to my own situation. I do me, and you do you, okay? I am here to share my experience, not to argue with anyone. I don't need someone to tell me I need a reality check.
 
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SFSV650 said:
There isn't? Seems like everyone I talk to thinks one is imminent.
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I am 72. I have been hearing dire predictions of earthquakes, economic collapse, the second coming and overpopulation for 60 years. Here we ate!
 
AwakeNAlive said:
i think redruM found me, Jessie, parsing out my post like a shark attracted to blood poured into the ocean! :laughing

Cheers, everyone! :Port







What is?




I am interpreting the news, discussions on news-talk radio, newsletters that I subscribe to and listening to meetings held by senior economists to my own situation. I do me, and you do you, okay? I am here to share my experience, not to argue with anyone. I don't need someone to tell me I need a reality check.
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:thumbup
 
AwakeNAlive said:
What is?
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Precious metals. Natural resources. Art. Farmland.

AwakeNAlive said:
I am interpreting the news, discussions on news-talk radio, newsletters that I subscribe to and listening to meetings held by senior economists to my own situation. I do me, and you do you, okay? I am here to share my experience, not to argue with anyone. I don't need someone to tell me I need a reality check.
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I too am here to share my experience. Sorry you felt the need to become defensive... I parsed your post with the intent of giving general responses for anyone who might share your sentiment.

This is a discussion forum, where differing points of view are expressed all the time in every thread. What a creepy dystopian world it would be if we all held precisely the same beliefs, felt the same feelings and said the same words. I think so, anyway.
 
afm199 said:
I am 72. I have been hearing dire predictions of earthquakes, economic collapse, the second coming and overpopulation for 60 years. Here we ate!
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60 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things. And I do mean scheme.

Pretty sure you and the rest of the boomers will see how this episode ends!
 
My point was, it doesn't have to be one or the other: 1) don't invest in stocks at all to avoid losing your savings in the next recession, or 2) invest all of your retirement fund into some split of stocks and bonds, as the general advice has been to people who don't want to roll up their sleeves, learn and tweak their investment allocation to their comfort level. When you choose which equities satisfy your level of risk and return and how much equities you can take on in order to sleep at night, you are taking personal control of the direction of your own investments.


The fundamentals to build on are: dollar cost averaging and compounded interest. As an employee who invests a certain % of pay on a regular basis up to the employer match, you are buying "shares". You buy more shares when the stock prices are down; you buy less shares with the same lump sum when stock prices are up. The equities pay dividends, and over time, you own more shares. At the end of the quarter, the employer puts in some kind of matching contribution and you get more shares. Whatever the given day is, if the market is up or down, you still have those shares, until you sell.


You don't sell at the first temptation out of fear of the start of some long-term downturn, without knowing about all of the financial and economic factors that lead to a recession or a reason for the sudden adjustment in the market. On some days, there is no immediate analysis available, and it pays to just wait it out. Stocks are ownership in public companies that produce something of value, like a service or manufactured product. They are an asset-based investment where compliance reporting requires companies to report their financials every quarter, where there is transparency of earnings and revenue.


The thing you want to avoid is something that is complicated, not easy to understand, like a financial instrument composed of different assets that bear different levels of risk. Risk is risk. It is important to have some level of it, if you want to grow your savings. Choose what you can take on, but don't put your head in the sand to be avoid being run over by inflation in the future was my point.
 
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redruM said:
60 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things. And I do mean scheme.

Pretty sure you and the rest of the boomers will see how this episode ends!
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i react to that the same way as someone telling the same story, to every generation, that in everyone's lifetime, we will witness Jesus walk on earth again ...
 
AwakeNAlive said:
i react to that the same way as someone telling the same story, to every generation, that in everyone's lifetime, we will witness Jesus walk on earth again ...
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Check outside a Home Depot. Dude has his tools ready and waiting for a contractor to pick him up.
 
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