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Stock Thread 2019

Hmm. When PGE declared bankruptcy in 2001 it stock plunged to 7 something, climbed, plunged again to 8 something, but rebounded in following years. I guess the question is what/if would be different this time around.

This is a great question and I think the answer is that PGE is kind of exempt from the normal things we associate with bankruptcy. Chapter 11 is usually filed by a company in its death throes and they end up in liquidation at some point and then the order of debt paid follows what Ernie was talking about. No traditional investor would touch a company in such a fragile state, but PGE is incestuously unique.

Maybe if we're not worried about PGE truly going bankrupt, fiscally anyway, and liquidating assets, then we're not actually worried about the stock going poof. Maybe stocks get shuffled around, but probably not gone. They've already shown their hand in how they plan to pay for their lawsuits and it's going to come through their rates, so probably not through shareholders. They raise rates, eventually pay their debt, but it's not like rates are going back afterwards, so it's gravy after that.

PGE is so awful, it wouldn't surprise me if these problems were actually desired. Maybe the ten year plan has these debts paid with big margins afterwards, margins created from rate changes that could only have been made from a re-org. California regulators don't make it easy for them to raise rates in a big way, but a fear mongering re-org provides the tools to make it happen. /tinfoil
 
Any chance of a Gavin takeover? I’m thinking it would blend in nicely with his road and dam portfolio.
 
His Cheshire smile says he'd be a perfect fit at PGE, but I don't see him scraping the coin together. Plus, it's kind of a loser for anyone in the public eye.
 
So you're going to buy 120 shares or so. Good luck! I hope it works out for you. Just checked, down another $1.50 this morning. Did you get in yesterday? I hope not.

Why so bitter? And when did I say I purchased pge? It seems like you want everyone to invest your way and any other way is foolish.

NFLX up 50% from Dec 24. I was watching the climb but not comfortable enough to pull the trigger. Damn it.

They’re bumping prices again. I wonder what the historical info on their price bumps is compared to stock price, date etc. might be a nice little pattern to follow.
 
Why so bitter? And when did I say I purchased pge? It seems like you want everyone to invest your way and any other way is foolish.



They’re bumping prices again. I wonder what the historical info on their price bumps is compared to stock price, date etc. might be a nice little pattern to follow.

Bitter? That's funny. You're not a typical investor and I do hope you make out. I question your rationale. That doesn't make me bitter. At all. You've said several times, IIRC, that you were going to gamble on it. Should I quote that?
 
This thread had me interested in the price of PG&E stock...

:devil
 

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I should have listened to my cynical/pessimistic/ironic thoughts about investing in AIG back when they were at $7. I mean, of course I'd make a bunch of money investing in an unethical pos company like that. It's the American way. I'm gonna listen to myself this time.
 
Bitter? That's funny. You're not a typical investor and I do hope you make out. I question your rationale. That doesn't make me bitter. At all. You've said several times, IIRC, that you were going to gamble on it. Should I quote that?

Whenever I mention a trade you always seem to be against it. To say I'm not a typical investor I have to ask what is a typical investor?
 
Whenever I mention a trade you always seem to be against it. To say I'm not a typical investor I have to ask what is a typical investor?

My apologies if this is the case. I'll make every effort to no longer do this.
 
A lot of it is because we're all kinda naturally narcissistic thinking we all have the same reference points, experience, risk assessment, goals, etc. Almost any type of investing is "ok" as long as the investor understands the risk. Even amway type stuff, if you know you won't make anything and it just sounds fun, knock yourself out.
 
I should have listened to my cynical/pessimistic/ironic thoughts about investing in AIG back when they were at $7. I mean, of course I'd make a bunch of money investing in an unethical pos company like that. It's the American way. I'm gonna listen to myself this time.

I just took a look at their stock since beginning. Damn....
 
I'm sure there are still quite a few people living large off of that place. Any of us could have made 6x on the leftover scraps. As for PGE, I don't think it will be long before we see a green day. All the short term major bads are known. They face billion in lawsuits and are filing for bankruptcy, but we know the state will work with them to make sure things keep moving, so what's the next bombshell? I don't think there is one for a bit. They lost half after knowing this the other day, twenty percent today, maybe a single digit tomorrow, maybe flat or minus a little on Thursday and then maybe a good spot to buy in. Good of course being a high-risk-you-could-lose-everything kind of good. :p
 
I'm sure there are still quite a few people living large off of that place. Any of us could have made 6x on the leftover scraps. As for PGE, I don't think it will be long before we see a green day. All the short term major bads are known. They face billion in lawsuits and are filing for bankruptcy, but we know the state will work with them to make sure things keep moving, so what's the next bombshell? I don't think there is one for a bit. They lost half after knowing this the other day, twenty percent today, maybe a single digit tomorrow, maybe flat or minus a little on Thursday and then maybe a good spot to buy in. Good of course being a high-risk-you-could-lose-everything kind of good. :p

I agree, with some caveats. They will shed debt in bankruptcy, scrape off the bondholders, law suits, and even better, tens of billions ( as I understand it) in contracts to buy green power negotiated several years ago at high prices. The shareholders will take a huge hit. The company ( in terms of infrastructure and goals) will survive with new management and probably ownership. They will still have the lucrative CA industry, BUT they will be dealing with a new deck when it comes to borrowing. PG&E has shown twice in twenty years that their bonds are a bad deal. Which means that borrowing is going to be difficult, or Ca will backstop them. The reason I don't see any upside in the stock is that there's still too much downside not known. And one of the questions is whether a state utility that is highly regulated and forced to deal money losing green power can make a profit.

But yeah, you could buy in a few days from now and score big if the stars line up right!
 
Do we know exactly how it went last time? I looked around a little and some articles definitely suggest that equity stocks were untouched, but I don't see many specifics. I think they have too many bigwig buddies out there with common stock to let it be absorbed by creditors. PGE is slimy and I try to think about what the most slimy path is, but unfortunately it supports both keeping and liquidating stocks, so it's a coin toss, except in the past they haven't done it afaik, so I lean towards thinking they're slimy in the way that retains common stock. I get why you don't see an upside, because coin toss investing is pretty stupid as a strategy, but a small amount you don't care about? It's better than a scratcher!
 
Do we know exactly how it went last time? I looked around a little and some articles definitely suggest that equity stocks were untouched, but I don't see many specifics. I think they have too many bigwig buddies out there with common stock to let it be absorbed by creditors. PGE is slimy and I try to think about what the most slimy path is, but unfortunately it supports both keeping and liquidating stocks, so it's a coin toss, except in the past they haven't done it afaik, so I lean towards thinking they're slimy in the way that retains common stock. I get why you don't see an upside, because coin toss investing is pretty stupid as a strategy, but a small amount you don't care about? It's better than a scratcher!
So next question... how do I buy some? Lol
 
Well you see the first thing you to do is see if you can get a second mortgage...

Haha I kid, but some retirement accounts will let you trade from there, otherwise pick an online broker and sign up.
 
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