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Stock Thread 2018

Hmmm, not so sure it isn't chugging along right on schedule


Ji4U890.jpg

This. Stay the course with conservative stocks that pay dividends. Over the last 100+ Year’s the market gained around eight percent per annum with dividends reinvested.

Buy on downturns. :thumbup
 
Gotta watch out for charts that adjust scale because they think it reads better. The X is linear, but the Y is exponential. Find a chart with a linear X/Y and the end point on your line will change significantly.

I deliberately switched the chart to log scale because over longer timeframes it shows a more accurate picture of whats happening.

Suppose the market starts at 1000 and doubles every 5 years.
1000
2000
4000
8000
16000
32000

All it did was double but plotting that on a linear scale would look parabolic when really in terms of percentage gain it should plot as a straight line.
 
As long as whatever multiplier you enter yields the same result no matter what you enter, then you know it's absolute. If the target changes relative to your multiplier, then you know it's relative.
 
As long as whatever multiplier you enter yields the same result no matter what you enter, then you know it's absolute. If the target changes relative to your multiplier, then you know it's relative.

Amen (sung in the best English choir style - stretch it out....)
 
As long as whatever multiplier you enter yields the same result no matter what you enter, then you know it's absolute. If the target changes relative to your multiplier, then you know it's relative.

Well as long as its not a varying multiplier. Its simply representing data and for market gains over a period of decades I find it misleading to view using a linear scale. I think in terms of percentage gain but if I was only focused on points I use a linear scale so I could feel richer :x
 
I am loving this market. It is exciting!

It's a bloody yo-yo mate! I'm enjoying it as well. Bouncing along the bottom like a fishing sinker. When does one strike? That's the thing.......
 
US Steel up 50% in 3 months and Nucor holders having a good time also. Someone saw this coming. Might still have legs.
 
US Steel up 50% in 3 months and Nucor holders having a good time also. Someone saw this coming. Might still have legs.

Fuuuuuuck that place.

Nothing against the business as a whole. I've worked at a couple of their plants and they're deathtraps. It's the nature of the industry, but still, I'd rather be at a paper mill than a Nucor foundry, and that's saying something.
 
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for those of you who are interested in a sample of dividend stocks (includes Nucor)... provides market value, dividend yield, consecutive annual dividend increases, analysts opinion at the time article was published 11/13/17


https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T018-S001-50-dividend-stocks-you-can-count-on-in-2018/index.html?cid=56&kwp_0=599294&kwp_4=2532505&kwp_1=1073154

(warning: a 50-pg slideshow)

Thanks for the link (there is a "view as one page link on the page for those that hate slideshows).

What you describe sounds a lot like the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index.

The S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats® index is designed to measure the performance of companies within the S&P Composite 1500® that have followed a managed-dividends policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 20 years.​

This is a good vehicle for long-term growth, especially in a tax-advantaged account like and IRA where you can reinvest dividends without losing a chunk to taxes as it grows.

SDY is a nice low-expense ETF that tracks that index.

:thumbup
 
Another favorite of mine: ADX. An interesting play. It's an old fund with lots of capital appreciation and a considerable discount. It's almost a fixed income play. And an opportunity to buy some solid equities at a considerable discount. CEF.
 
Another favorite of mine: ADX. An interesting play. It's an old fund with lots of capital appreciation and a considerable discount. It's almost a fixed income play. And an opportunity to buy some solid equities at a considerable discount. CEF.


afm can you explain the benefits of a closed-ended fund? something like no fees and commissions at the beginning when you buy and when you sell? and does the discount exist because it is a fixed income instrument?
 
afm can you explain the benefits of a closed-ended fund? something like no fees and commissions at the beginning when you buy and when you sell? and does the discount exist because it is a fixed income instrument?

CEF is a fund that trades like an ETF but is a fixed number of shares. Let's say 10,000,000 shares were sold when the fund opened. There will never be any more with most CEF's (closed end). The value of the fund goes up and down with the value of the market, and the shares trade based on perceived value. Unlike most ETF, where more buyers will result in more shares created by buying more of the underlying stock. Hope that makes sense. No one can create or redeem shares in a CEF.

So when you buy ADX, you will buy it from another owner. When you buy an ETF like SCHD, the fund can create shares buy buying shares of the underlying stocks that make up SCHD, through an authorized agent. They can also sell shares. In other words they can create or dissolve shares as they wish.

Fixed income means an instrument delivers a fixed income on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, and with a price that often remains stable. Bonds are the absolute epitome of fixed income, that's what they are. The price is usually stable and they trade for the income stream ( people buy them to get the yield.) ADX is what I call almost fixed income because their current policy is to pay a specific yield every year. And they do. They also trade at what I consider a large discount, when you buy a share, you "own "more underlying stock than the share cost you. Hope that makes sense.

CEF's are usually income producing products. That's their intention. They do happen to have price changes that can follow the market but not necessarily match it. There are some problems with them. Because they concentrate on income, the price won't move nearly as much as a stock fund in an up market. On the other hand, they continue to pay the same dividends in down markets for the most part. Good to study before buying. Sometimes they will use leverage, large amounts of it, to create income stream, so interest rate changes can have large effects on the underlying price.
 
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...So when you buy ADX, you will buy it from another owner. When you buy an ETF like SCHD, the fund can create shares buy buying shares of the underlying stocks that make up SCHD, through an authorized agent. They can also sell shares. In other words they can create or dissolve shares as they wish.

...

ADX is what I call almost fixed income because their current policy is to pay a specific yield every year. And they do. They also trade at what I consider a large discount, when you buy a share, you "own "more underlying stock than the share cost you. Hope that makes sense.

thx for taking the time to type out an explanation to elaborate, afm. I appreciate it very much.


I, like probably most people, are looking to alternatives to bond funds for diversification. Analysts predict at least 3 interest rate hikes this year by the Fed.

https://i.imgur.com/SFhSjN9.jpg
Looks like I can buy some shares of ADX from schwab?

but you also warn about interest rate changes impacting the price ... leading me to the same dilemma ...

I will probably keep an eye on ADX before buying a single share ... not in a hurry to make any changes without understanding what i am getting into ...




jt2: I have a few shares of SDY ... not as much as SPY, which I have gone hog wild for. My IRA Rollover account is heavily in ETFs; I have made decisions to sell sector-specific mutual funds with low expense ratios in exchange for ETFs that closely follow the market. With a full time job that also demands much of my personal time, I can't be worrying about corporations going out of business without warning no matter how much dividends they pay out ...
 
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Yes, ADX and almost all CEFs are traded on the exchange, you can buy it from Schwab.
 
I have a few shares of SDY ... not as much as SPY, which I have gone hog wild for. My IRA Rollover account is heavily in ETFs; I have made decisions to sell sector-specific mutual funds with low expense ratios in exchange for ETFs that closely follow the market. With a full time job that also demands much of my personal time, I can't be worrying about corporations going out of business without warning no matter how much dividends they pay out ...

I think that is wise. Most actively managed funds can't beat the S&P 500 after fees. I recall reading a couple years ago that over a 10 year period, 80% of funds underperformed compared to the SPX. :thumbup

I think most individual investors would be well served to not try and do what only 20% of pros can do.
 
Warren Buffett: "Most investors should buy VOO and not try to beat the market or follow trends." (or something like that.)
 
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