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Stock Thread 2018

I'm out on my larger account and still in on the smaller one, but I'm going to move that one too. My reasons aren't black and white. It's a mix of thinking we're headed for another recession combined with the amount of money in there and also combined with what my future looks like as far as contributions are concerned. There's enough in there now that we could probably retire outside of the US and it's not something I want to risk. Kinda of like hitting that nice save point in a game, I don't want to undo everything I've worked for. I'll get back in later.
 
I'm out on my larger account and still in on the smaller one, but I'm going to move that one too. My reasons aren't black and white. It's a mix of thinking we're headed for another recession combined with the amount of money in there and also combined with what my future looks like as far as contributions are concerned. There's enough in there now that we could probably retire outside of the US and it's not something I want to risk. Kinda of like hitting that nice save point in a game, I don't want to undo everything I've worked for. I'll get back in later.

so u just take the tax and penalty hit?
 
No not fully out, just out of any plan. I assume all places have this, but Fidelity has a low interest option kind of like a bank account, but you can't touch it. It allows you be disconnected from the market without suffering any withdrawal penalties, then just push a button whenever you want and it's all back in.
 
Staying in the long positions, buying the beat downs that offer good dividends, everything else, cash.

We're ripe for a major event not market related.

Edit update: ripe, not ready.
 
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No not fully out, just out of any plan. I assume all places have this, but Fidelity has a low interest option kind of like a bank account, but you can't touch it. It allows you be disconnected from the market without suffering any withdrawal penalties, then just push a button whenever you want and it's all back in.

that like a money market fund?
 
This is a little different, they call it an "FDIC-Insured Deposit Sweep". I don't think the Spaxx money market thing is FDIC insured, but the rate is better. The sweep is something close to zero percent, but is insured.
 
For what it's worth Ally Bank has a "No Penalty CD" that currently pays 1.5%. You can cash it in at any time and keep the interest.
 
For what it's worth Ally Bank has a "No Penalty CD" that currently pays 1.5%. You can cash it in at any time and keep the interest.

Ditto CitBank. Savings account 1.55%
 
As far as investing in the stock market, I think some folks are missing something. If you want guaranteed income, you buy US Treasury's.

The stock market is called "Risk" for a reason. You may earn a much higher rate of return, and you may not. Thus it's risk. If you invest in the stock market expecting an excellent return, you're doing it wrong.
 
My random number generator tells me the market should be in the high teens to low twenties. Make a V bottom and then off to 27,000 in 2019.
 
My random number generator tells me the market should be in the high teens to low twenties. Make a V bottom and then off to 27,000 in 2019.

I'm putting it all on the line now.
 
Following the slow and steady growth from the late 80's to early 90's, before the tech/housing bubbles, it looks like we should be at ~10k. Participating in mainstream markets today would be like participating in whatever the bitcoin equivalent was from 20-30 years ago. So, which is it? Because if it's all about slow and steady, then you're investing in something other than stocks.
 
Following the slow and steady growth from the late 80's to early 90's, before the tech/housing bubbles, it looks like we should be at ~10k. Participating in mainstream markets today would be like participating in whatever the bitcoin equivalent was from 20-30 years ago. So, which is it? Because if it's all about slow and steady, then you're investing in something other than stocks.

Hmmm, not so sure it isn't chugging along right on schedule


Ji4U890.jpg
 
Now extend that graph back 20 years into the 70's and see what happens

In the seventies, $5,000 was a significant sum of money. Today, it's just diddly squat.
 
Hmmm, not so sure it isn't chugging along right on schedule

Gotta watch out for charts that adjust scale because they think it reads better. The X is linear, but the Y is exponential. Find a chart with a linear X/Y and the end point on your line will change significantly.
 
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